With Scott Walker entering the race today (probably and hopefully the 3rd-to-last candidate to enter) and with Donald Trump commanding the headlines, it is time for a mid-summer update and sorting of the candidates to see how they stand at the moment.
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Serious, Top Tier Candidates
These are the candidates who have the best shot of winning not only the primary elections, but also the general election.
Marco Rubio is young, dynamic, acceptable to all GOP factions, optimistic, Hispanic, the senator of a crucial state, and has movie-star caliber looks to boot. He definitely belongs in the top tier and would pose a serious threat to Hillary Clinton next year.
Scott Walker, a young conservative hero who has a strong track record of success in liberal Wisconsin could win the nomination as a compromise candidate among the factions of the GOP. A Walker presidency would be the nightmare of the AFL-CIO, SEIU, and other unions.
Finally, Jeb Bush, the reasonably moderate, successful governor of a crucial state with a royal last name (at least among the party nobility) has to be considered the front-runner because of his war chest and popularity among the party’s ruling element (which is truly the most important constituency of the long primary season).
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Crusaders/Symbolic Campaigns
While one or two of these candidates might legitimately believe they have a shot at winning, these candidates all have a core issue or crusade that they are trying to bring to the forefront of national debates or at least force the GOP to address in the party platform.
My former senator, Rick Santorum, is a culture warrior, hyperinterventionist, somewhat of an economic populist, and vehemently disliked by most Americans. He was the beneficiary of lucky political timing in a much-weaker 2012 field and it seems doubtful that he will be able to pull off any victories next year, especially in a Republican Party desperate to move on in a post-Obergefell world.
Rick Perry- the folksy, gaffe-prone, successful governor of Texas is a laughingstock among many Americans. His 2012 campaign was terribly executed and despite restoring his image to some extent, his reputation is still far below acceptable levels for successful presidential candidates.
Mike Huckabee is another culture warrior (especially on the dying issue of gay marriage), “big government conservative”, and somewhat of an economic populist. Huckabee has threatened to leave the GOP over the issue of same-sex marriage and is trying to make opposition to Obergefell the centerpiece of his campaign, despite astonishing ominous shifts in national public opinion on the issue.
Lindsey Graham, a senator addicted to war, would probably drop nukes on Britain if his drones spotted a terrorist on the streets of London. His campaign may be the swan song of mid-2000’s neoconservatism and has been launched primarily in opposition to Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Graham fashions himself as being rather moderate, but his absurd foreign policy is outdated and outmoded in the new Republican Party.
Ben Carson is a Tea Party favorite who probably belongs less in this category than the others in this category, but his candidacy is probably best described as a crusade on behalf of social conservatism. While his life story is intriguing, he has no political experience and this inexperience has already manifested in several campaign gaffes. He probably could also be classified in the next category, as his name would be mentioned in a Republican presidency for Surgeon General.
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Candidates Gunning for Cabinet Positions
This category includes a mix of old faces and a new face to the political scene. In each case, the candidate is using his/her campaign to elevate their profile when the time comes to consider high-level appointments for a Republican administration.
Carly Fiorina- despite having no political resume, she could easily end up as the VP nominee since the GOP will need a woman to diminish Hillary Clinton’s advantage among women. Moreover, she has proven to be quite feisty in the last few months- openly calling out Clinton and challenging her record. Fiorina’s own record as a corporate CEO will, doubtlessly, come under scrutiny, as will her infamous Demon Sheep ad.
George Pataki- without grassroots or establishment support, the former New York Governor appears to be attempting to make his name relevant enough to merit cabinet consideration. On paper, Pataki looks like he would make an excellent president. In practice, the national GOP is too conservative for Pataki to be a successful candidate.
Jim Gilmore- everything said about Pataki applies to Gilmore (a former Governor of Virginia who has not been in office in 14 years). It is difficult to imagine him enjoying much electoral success after losing his last campaign by 31 points.
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The Deluded
As the title implies, these candidates are either overly sanguine about their chances of occupying the White House and have lost touch with reality, or they have some other goal in mind besides winning the election.
Donald Trump- at this point, I am starting to think he is a leftist plant tasked with acting like the most grotesque caricature of conservatism imaginable. Or he is certifiably insane.
Bobby Jindal- his once-promising rise to stardom has completely flamed out, and now he has reduced himself to throwing red meat to the ideological base.
Ted Cruz- he will be sharp in debates and has a strong following, but his campaign strategy of abandoning the so-called “mushy middle” for an imaginary constituency of conservatives staying home instead of voting is nothing short of insane and would destroy him if he somehow won the nomination.
Chris Christie- if he really believes that an overwhelming majority of New Jersey citizens believe he will not make a good president because they want him to remain governor of their state, he has truly lost touch with reality.
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Wild Cards
Rand Paul- he has the potential to be a top tier candidate, but shoots himself in the foot by being bedfellows with racist Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy. Such self-inflicted wounds could doom his candidacy more than anything any of his opponents could say (think Aqua Buddha). If he avoids these self-inflicted pitfalls, however, he has the potential to build a new, winning coalition of those who love personal liberty.
John Kasich- quite possibly Huntsman 2.0, he looks great on paper, but may not be able to lift his campaign off the ground because of lack of base/grassroots support. This campaign could, however, build a foundation for a strong 2020 campaign which he would likely begin as the “establishment” favorite.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Serious, Top Tier Candidates
These are the candidates who have the best shot of winning not only the primary elections, but also the general election.
Marco Rubio is young, dynamic, acceptable to all GOP factions, optimistic, Hispanic, the senator of a crucial state, and has movie-star caliber looks to boot. He definitely belongs in the top tier and would pose a serious threat to Hillary Clinton next year.
Scott Walker, a young conservative hero who has a strong track record of success in liberal Wisconsin could win the nomination as a compromise candidate among the factions of the GOP. A Walker presidency would be the nightmare of the AFL-CIO, SEIU, and other unions.
Finally, Jeb Bush, the reasonably moderate, successful governor of a crucial state with a royal last name (at least among the party nobility) has to be considered the front-runner because of his war chest and popularity among the party’s ruling element (which is truly the most important constituency of the long primary season).
______________________________________________________________________________
Crusaders/Symbolic Campaigns
While one or two of these candidates might legitimately believe they have a shot at winning, these candidates all have a core issue or crusade that they are trying to bring to the forefront of national debates or at least force the GOP to address in the party platform.
My former senator, Rick Santorum, is a culture warrior, hyperinterventionist, somewhat of an economic populist, and vehemently disliked by most Americans. He was the beneficiary of lucky political timing in a much-weaker 2012 field and it seems doubtful that he will be able to pull off any victories next year, especially in a Republican Party desperate to move on in a post-Obergefell world.
Rick Perry- the folksy, gaffe-prone, successful governor of Texas is a laughingstock among many Americans. His 2012 campaign was terribly executed and despite restoring his image to some extent, his reputation is still far below acceptable levels for successful presidential candidates.
Mike Huckabee is another culture warrior (especially on the dying issue of gay marriage), “big government conservative”, and somewhat of an economic populist. Huckabee has threatened to leave the GOP over the issue of same-sex marriage and is trying to make opposition to Obergefell the centerpiece of his campaign, despite astonishing ominous shifts in national public opinion on the issue.
Lindsey Graham, a senator addicted to war, would probably drop nukes on Britain if his drones spotted a terrorist on the streets of London. His campaign may be the swan song of mid-2000’s neoconservatism and has been launched primarily in opposition to Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Graham fashions himself as being rather moderate, but his absurd foreign policy is outdated and outmoded in the new Republican Party.
Ben Carson is a Tea Party favorite who probably belongs less in this category than the others in this category, but his candidacy is probably best described as a crusade on behalf of social conservatism. While his life story is intriguing, he has no political experience and this inexperience has already manifested in several campaign gaffes. He probably could also be classified in the next category, as his name would be mentioned in a Republican presidency for Surgeon General.
______________________________________________________________________________
Candidates Gunning for Cabinet Positions
This category includes a mix of old faces and a new face to the political scene. In each case, the candidate is using his/her campaign to elevate their profile when the time comes to consider high-level appointments for a Republican administration.
Carly Fiorina- despite having no political resume, she could easily end up as the VP nominee since the GOP will need a woman to diminish Hillary Clinton’s advantage among women. Moreover, she has proven to be quite feisty in the last few months- openly calling out Clinton and challenging her record. Fiorina’s own record as a corporate CEO will, doubtlessly, come under scrutiny, as will her infamous Demon Sheep ad.
George Pataki- without grassroots or establishment support, the former New York Governor appears to be attempting to make his name relevant enough to merit cabinet consideration. On paper, Pataki looks like he would make an excellent president. In practice, the national GOP is too conservative for Pataki to be a successful candidate.
Jim Gilmore- everything said about Pataki applies to Gilmore (a former Governor of Virginia who has not been in office in 14 years). It is difficult to imagine him enjoying much electoral success after losing his last campaign by 31 points.
_____________________________________________________________________________
The Deluded
As the title implies, these candidates are either overly sanguine about their chances of occupying the White House and have lost touch with reality, or they have some other goal in mind besides winning the election.
Donald Trump- at this point, I am starting to think he is a leftist plant tasked with acting like the most grotesque caricature of conservatism imaginable. Or he is certifiably insane.
Bobby Jindal- his once-promising rise to stardom has completely flamed out, and now he has reduced himself to throwing red meat to the ideological base.
Ted Cruz- he will be sharp in debates and has a strong following, but his campaign strategy of abandoning the so-called “mushy middle” for an imaginary constituency of conservatives staying home instead of voting is nothing short of insane and would destroy him if he somehow won the nomination.
Chris Christie- if he really believes that an overwhelming majority of New Jersey citizens believe he will not make a good president because they want him to remain governor of their state, he has truly lost touch with reality.
______________________________________________________________________________
Wild Cards
Rand Paul- he has the potential to be a top tier candidate, but shoots himself in the foot by being bedfellows with racist Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy. Such self-inflicted wounds could doom his candidacy more than anything any of his opponents could say (think Aqua Buddha). If he avoids these self-inflicted pitfalls, however, he has the potential to build a new, winning coalition of those who love personal liberty.
John Kasich- quite possibly Huntsman 2.0, he looks great on paper, but may not be able to lift his campaign off the ground because of lack of base/grassroots support. This campaign could, however, build a foundation for a strong 2020 campaign which he would likely begin as the “establishment” favorite.
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