One of the most famous episodes of Community involves a comparison of the possible timelines resulting from the toss of a die to determine which of the friends should go and retrieve the pizza that has just been delivered to the apartment building. Although a seemingly-trivial matter, the timelines established by this act of random chance vary considerably, with couples forming, accidents happening, and even the entire apartment going up in flames (spawning one of the most famous gifs of all time) depending on which number the die landed on. Today, I want to do a similar thought exercise, looking at how well the GOP is doing in a parallel universe in which Hillary Clinton won the presidency in 2016. In other words, how is the GOP doing on Earth II?
Election Night 2016 turned out to be quite the heart attack for the Earth II Democrats. Hillary Clinton, despite facing the worst candidate in American history, won the election by the skin of her teeth, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine’s Second District by a combined 106,000 votes to win the election 289-249. Trump’s success in flipping Ohio, Florida, and Iowa startled the Democrats, and the election rang even more hollow as the Republicans maintained control of the House and the Senate (with 52 votes). Therefore, despite their pledge to respect the outcome of the race, the Republicans commit to keeping Antonin Scalia’s seat vacant indefinitely.
Clinton’s presidency never really takes off. Despite a good economy that keeps on getting better, the scandals and controversies of the past plague her from the start. The Republican Congress holds endless hearings on her emails and investigate every conflict of interest they can possibly find. Clinton’s approval ratings generally hover around 45% and she lacks the Congressional support necessary to pursue any kind of agenda, least of all the bold agenda she desperately wants to pursue.
Clinton’s unpopularity immediately begins to drag down the Democrats at all levels. In Virginia, self-appointed Senator Terry McAuliffe is one of many Democratic defeats in the 2017 state elections, losing to Congresswoman Barbara Comstock in a low-turnout election marked by strong Republican energy. Moreover, incumbent Governor Ralph Northam loses badly to Ed Gillespie, and the rest of the statewide ticket also falls. The Virginia Republicans maintain and expand control of both chambers, and the election is viewed as an ominous warning of things to come in the 2018 midterms.
As it turns out, the 2017 elections did prove to be a harbinger of bad things to come for the Democrats. Facing the best imaginable Senate map in 2018, the Republicans expand their Senate seats from 53 to 61 by holding all of the few seats they have to defend, and adding MT, ND, WV (with Manchin flipping parties), OH, FL, MO, IN, and MI to their collection. Meanwhile, Speaker Ryan also has a good night, adding a handful of House seats to their sizable majority. The Republicans also do well at the state level, holding on to all of their governorships and even defeating PA Governor Tom Wolf. Perhaps the only disappointment for the GOP that evening comes from New York, in which Governor Andrew Cuomo easily defeats Donald Trump in the race for governor. By midnight, Clinton looks even more powerless and vulnerable than ever before.
In 2019, the Republicans begin jockeying for next year’s presidential elections. Energized by their victories in 2018 (and yet still scarred by the memory of Donald Trump’s disastrous run), they turn to popular South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as their standard bearer. Clinton, meanwhile is bogged down by a scandal involving Saudi Arabia and the Clinton Foundation that results in her impeachment. The removal effort fails on a party-line vote in the Senate, but she and Bill now bear the stigma of being 2 of the 3 impeached presidents in American history. The end of 2019, of course, is marked by the emergence of a strange and deadly virus out of China that threatens the world. Clinton brings attention to it, but the Republicans assert that she is trying to distract from the impeachment.
In 2020, the Republican primaries end fairly quickly, as Haley sweeps the early contests and eliminates all of her competitors (even though Texas Senator Ted Cruz sticks around until he is completely out of money). Florida Senator Marco Rubio emerges as the likely VP nominee, given his early endorsement of Haley and general popularity.
Unfortunately, however, the Coronavirus soon makes its presence known and throws the world into chaos. The United States is not spared from its path, but President Clinton takes up her role as Leader of the Free World and leads America through the crisis. Clinton’s measures, however, are not well-received by the Republicans and so there is some degree of resistance to her calls for lockdowns and preventative measures. By the end of summer, 40,000 Americans are dead and the economy has entered a recession.
Haley, however, has toed the line between electoral opponent and Leader of the Loyal Opposition. Haley endorses many of Clinton’s actions, lending bipartisan legitimacy to social distancing measures, which save many lives. Haley enjoys approval ratings north of 60%, while Clinton’s sink to the mid-30s. In the debates, Haley calmly, but effectively, dismantles Clinton and expands her lead in the national polls to double digits.
By Election Day, 50,000 dead Americans is simply too high a death toll for Clinton to overcome. The Haley/Rubio ticket wins the General Election with 55% of the national vote, the Republicans expand their Senate majority by flipping Michigan, expand their House majority even more, and solidify their hold of state governorships and legislatures. Haley goes into office with 2 Supreme Court picks at the ready, and the expected retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy coming by the end of the term.
Consequently, the Republicans on Earth II are poised to control American politics for the next decade and the Supreme Court for even longer. Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio are the faces of the New GOP, while Donald Trump sulks in exile in Mar-A-Lago. There are still many challenges to face, but it is a good time to be a Republican.
Election Night 2016 turned out to be quite the heart attack for the Earth II Democrats. Hillary Clinton, despite facing the worst candidate in American history, won the election by the skin of her teeth, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine’s Second District by a combined 106,000 votes to win the election 289-249. Trump’s success in flipping Ohio, Florida, and Iowa startled the Democrats, and the election rang even more hollow as the Republicans maintained control of the House and the Senate (with 52 votes). Therefore, despite their pledge to respect the outcome of the race, the Republicans commit to keeping Antonin Scalia’s seat vacant indefinitely.
Clinton’s presidency never really takes off. Despite a good economy that keeps on getting better, the scandals and controversies of the past plague her from the start. The Republican Congress holds endless hearings on her emails and investigate every conflict of interest they can possibly find. Clinton’s approval ratings generally hover around 45% and she lacks the Congressional support necessary to pursue any kind of agenda, least of all the bold agenda she desperately wants to pursue.
Clinton’s unpopularity immediately begins to drag down the Democrats at all levels. In Virginia, self-appointed Senator Terry McAuliffe is one of many Democratic defeats in the 2017 state elections, losing to Congresswoman Barbara Comstock in a low-turnout election marked by strong Republican energy. Moreover, incumbent Governor Ralph Northam loses badly to Ed Gillespie, and the rest of the statewide ticket also falls. The Virginia Republicans maintain and expand control of both chambers, and the election is viewed as an ominous warning of things to come in the 2018 midterms.
As it turns out, the 2017 elections did prove to be a harbinger of bad things to come for the Democrats. Facing the best imaginable Senate map in 2018, the Republicans expand their Senate seats from 53 to 61 by holding all of the few seats they have to defend, and adding MT, ND, WV (with Manchin flipping parties), OH, FL, MO, IN, and MI to their collection. Meanwhile, Speaker Ryan also has a good night, adding a handful of House seats to their sizable majority. The Republicans also do well at the state level, holding on to all of their governorships and even defeating PA Governor Tom Wolf. Perhaps the only disappointment for the GOP that evening comes from New York, in which Governor Andrew Cuomo easily defeats Donald Trump in the race for governor. By midnight, Clinton looks even more powerless and vulnerable than ever before.
In 2019, the Republicans begin jockeying for next year’s presidential elections. Energized by their victories in 2018 (and yet still scarred by the memory of Donald Trump’s disastrous run), they turn to popular South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as their standard bearer. Clinton, meanwhile is bogged down by a scandal involving Saudi Arabia and the Clinton Foundation that results in her impeachment. The removal effort fails on a party-line vote in the Senate, but she and Bill now bear the stigma of being 2 of the 3 impeached presidents in American history. The end of 2019, of course, is marked by the emergence of a strange and deadly virus out of China that threatens the world. Clinton brings attention to it, but the Republicans assert that she is trying to distract from the impeachment.
In 2020, the Republican primaries end fairly quickly, as Haley sweeps the early contests and eliminates all of her competitors (even though Texas Senator Ted Cruz sticks around until he is completely out of money). Florida Senator Marco Rubio emerges as the likely VP nominee, given his early endorsement of Haley and general popularity.
Unfortunately, however, the Coronavirus soon makes its presence known and throws the world into chaos. The United States is not spared from its path, but President Clinton takes up her role as Leader of the Free World and leads America through the crisis. Clinton’s measures, however, are not well-received by the Republicans and so there is some degree of resistance to her calls for lockdowns and preventative measures. By the end of summer, 40,000 Americans are dead and the economy has entered a recession.
Haley, however, has toed the line between electoral opponent and Leader of the Loyal Opposition. Haley endorses many of Clinton’s actions, lending bipartisan legitimacy to social distancing measures, which save many lives. Haley enjoys approval ratings north of 60%, while Clinton’s sink to the mid-30s. In the debates, Haley calmly, but effectively, dismantles Clinton and expands her lead in the national polls to double digits.
By Election Day, 50,000 dead Americans is simply too high a death toll for Clinton to overcome. The Haley/Rubio ticket wins the General Election with 55% of the national vote, the Republicans expand their Senate majority by flipping Michigan, expand their House majority even more, and solidify their hold of state governorships and legislatures. Haley goes into office with 2 Supreme Court picks at the ready, and the expected retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy coming by the end of the term.
Consequently, the Republicans on Earth II are poised to control American politics for the next decade and the Supreme Court for even longer. Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio are the faces of the New GOP, while Donald Trump sulks in exile in Mar-A-Lago. There are still many challenges to face, but it is a good time to be a Republican.
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