tWith primary season underway, the Republican field has shrunk to 4 finalists, Trump and his 3 main opponents (Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich). Cruz has won most of the contests Trump has not won, and because of that, his supporters are calling on Rubio to drop out and accept the VP slot of the GOP ticket beneath Cruz. The logic is simple: offer Rubio supporters (who range from the very conservative to the very moderate) a bone and he can consolidate support as the anti-Trump candidate. I have several reservations, however, about this plan.
First, the best way to stop Trump right now is for Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio to form a gentleman’s agreement (a cartel, if you will) where they will stay out states in which they are not winning and encourage their supporters to back the top anti-Trump choice. Especially in winner-take-all states, like Florida and Ohio, it is self-defeating for Cruz to campaign hard in these states and ensure a Trump victory. If Trump wins those states, it is hard to see him not gaining the delegates he needs before the convention. And if Cruz tries to knock out either Kasich or Rubio, it is likely that the other anti-Trump opponent gains the lion’s share of the other candidate’s supporters. If Cruz does not stab Kasich or Rubio in the back, he might be more acceptable to those supporters in the event he wins a brokered convention. Cruz already has a reputation for dirty campaign tricks and he would be wise not to enhance that reputation by foolishly undercutting his allies. In other words, Cruz is now part of a cartel, whether he likes it or not, and if he defects, it will only be worse for him in the long-run.
Second, it is difficult to imagine how being Cruz’s running mate benefits Rubio. Rubio has the party backing and support right now and if he cannot win the nomination with such broad support, that could be the end of his national-level ambitions, at least in the short-term. He will be regarded as a bust and a joke who could not fulfill his seemingly-unlimited potential. I think his best path would be to seek the Florida Governorship in 2018 and run for President again in 2024 as a second-term Florida Governor, older and more experienced. Conversely, accepting the VP slot on Cruz’s ticket would mean that Rubio would be forever tied to what will surely be a disastrous November result. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the last person elected president who had the VP slot on a losing ticket in a previous election (look at the illustrious careers of John Edwards, Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp, Dan Quayle, Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Walter Mondale, and Nelson Rockefeller after losing a general election as the VP candidate). So, in short, accepting this consolation prize could doom Marco Rubio’s political future more than if he returns to Florida and rebuilds his career and prestige down there.
Third, Rubio does not add much to Cruz’s ticket for a general election. Yes, he might win Florida for Cruz, but that still leaves Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (and a few other states) as major question marks. To even have a chance at winning swing and moderate states, I think Cruz would have to pick an accomplished moderate-to-liberal woman to offset some of Hillary Clinton’s key advantages. Some names that come to mind include: Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), and Condoleezza Rice (California). These women would quell some of the concerns even moderately-conservative Republicans have about the fiery ideologue, and might help Cruz with independents and moderate Democrats. Although Rubio would be somewhat beneficial to Cruz's ticket, a ticket of two young southern male conservative Cuban senators seems a bit redundant. I just do not trust that the marginal benefits of having Rubio on the ticket would best the benefits of adding Collins, Murkowski, or Rice.
In conclusion, I have doubts about the wisdom of a Cruz/Rubio ticket. Although they have worked well as allies against Trump in the last couple of debates, I have some serious reservations about Cruz’s ability to defeat Hillary Clinton and the impact that it will have on Marco Rubio’s career. To win a general election, Cruz has to pick someone in the center who can offset some of Hillary’s key advantages (experience, gender, and relatively moderate positions) and Cruz’s biggest weaknesses (such as his ideological positioning, experience, age, and desire to burn Washington to the ground). Even though Rubio would help Cruz in this regard, someone like Susan Collins would do a better job at placating the center and neutralizing some of Cruz’s other problems. And in the shorter term, I am not sure a Cruz/Rubio ticket would be enough to stop Trump before the Convention. Before Rubio accepts any kind of deal, Cruz is going to tell us how exactly he plans to win the swing states in November and how Rubio would factor into this. Cruz and Rubio would also have to bury any hatchets that still exist between them (such as Cruz distorting Rubio's record on gun rights and Planned Parenthood). All in all, this seems like an unnecessary Hail Mary that Cruz probably would not honor if he got the nomination.
First, the best way to stop Trump right now is for Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio to form a gentleman’s agreement (a cartel, if you will) where they will stay out states in which they are not winning and encourage their supporters to back the top anti-Trump choice. Especially in winner-take-all states, like Florida and Ohio, it is self-defeating for Cruz to campaign hard in these states and ensure a Trump victory. If Trump wins those states, it is hard to see him not gaining the delegates he needs before the convention. And if Cruz tries to knock out either Kasich or Rubio, it is likely that the other anti-Trump opponent gains the lion’s share of the other candidate’s supporters. If Cruz does not stab Kasich or Rubio in the back, he might be more acceptable to those supporters in the event he wins a brokered convention. Cruz already has a reputation for dirty campaign tricks and he would be wise not to enhance that reputation by foolishly undercutting his allies. In other words, Cruz is now part of a cartel, whether he likes it or not, and if he defects, it will only be worse for him in the long-run.
Second, it is difficult to imagine how being Cruz’s running mate benefits Rubio. Rubio has the party backing and support right now and if he cannot win the nomination with such broad support, that could be the end of his national-level ambitions, at least in the short-term. He will be regarded as a bust and a joke who could not fulfill his seemingly-unlimited potential. I think his best path would be to seek the Florida Governorship in 2018 and run for President again in 2024 as a second-term Florida Governor, older and more experienced. Conversely, accepting the VP slot on Cruz’s ticket would mean that Rubio would be forever tied to what will surely be a disastrous November result. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the last person elected president who had the VP slot on a losing ticket in a previous election (look at the illustrious careers of John Edwards, Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp, Dan Quayle, Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Walter Mondale, and Nelson Rockefeller after losing a general election as the VP candidate). So, in short, accepting this consolation prize could doom Marco Rubio’s political future more than if he returns to Florida and rebuilds his career and prestige down there.
Third, Rubio does not add much to Cruz’s ticket for a general election. Yes, he might win Florida for Cruz, but that still leaves Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (and a few other states) as major question marks. To even have a chance at winning swing and moderate states, I think Cruz would have to pick an accomplished moderate-to-liberal woman to offset some of Hillary Clinton’s key advantages. Some names that come to mind include: Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), and Condoleezza Rice (California). These women would quell some of the concerns even moderately-conservative Republicans have about the fiery ideologue, and might help Cruz with independents and moderate Democrats. Although Rubio would be somewhat beneficial to Cruz's ticket, a ticket of two young southern male conservative Cuban senators seems a bit redundant. I just do not trust that the marginal benefits of having Rubio on the ticket would best the benefits of adding Collins, Murkowski, or Rice.
In conclusion, I have doubts about the wisdom of a Cruz/Rubio ticket. Although they have worked well as allies against Trump in the last couple of debates, I have some serious reservations about Cruz’s ability to defeat Hillary Clinton and the impact that it will have on Marco Rubio’s career. To win a general election, Cruz has to pick someone in the center who can offset some of Hillary’s key advantages (experience, gender, and relatively moderate positions) and Cruz’s biggest weaknesses (such as his ideological positioning, experience, age, and desire to burn Washington to the ground). Even though Rubio would help Cruz in this regard, someone like Susan Collins would do a better job at placating the center and neutralizing some of Cruz’s other problems. And in the shorter term, I am not sure a Cruz/Rubio ticket would be enough to stop Trump before the Convention. Before Rubio accepts any kind of deal, Cruz is going to tell us how exactly he plans to win the swing states in November and how Rubio would factor into this. Cruz and Rubio would also have to bury any hatchets that still exist between them (such as Cruz distorting Rubio's record on gun rights and Planned Parenthood). All in all, this seems like an unnecessary Hail Mary that Cruz probably would not honor if he got the nomination.
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