“Awake! Fear! Fire! Foes! Awake!” This awesome alarm system from Lord of the Rings basically describes the Republican Party right now. Fresh off of three fairly decisive primary victories in Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, many believe that Donald Trump’s nomination is more or less inevitable. That need not be the case, however, as Trump has two chief rivals who could easily knock him out. The problem? Until one of them drops, neither will win (it would also help if Carson and Kasich also dropped out, but that is another matter). Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, combined, can defeat Trump but individually, they both lose. Until this matter is resolved, the likelihood of a Trump nomination will only increase. For the good of the party and the country, Senator Cruz should be the one to drop out.
As this awesome table shows, Marco Rubio is quickly gaining the support of the power-brokers in the GOP. While this might count against him in a year when the theme of both parties seems to be “burn down the establishment!” it is quite telling that Rubio has the support of thirteen of his Senate colleagues while Cruz does not have ANY support from his Senate colleagues (and, for what its worth, Rubio also has more support from House members). Neither Rand Paul, nor Mike Lee, nor Jeff Sessions (a man whose name Cruz uses a trump card whenever he can), nor even his fellow Texas Senator John Cornyn have yet been willing to endorse the Senator from Texas. This tells me that Rubio’s colleagues believe he will be the easiest to work with as president, while none of Cruz’s colleagues believe he would work with them in actually attempting to govern.
This lack of Senate support gives Cruz a major incentive to suspend his campaign. If Cruz ends his campaign now, I think it could be the first step to re-building some of the many bridges that he has burned with his Senate colleagues. If, in this most desperate of hours, Ted Cruz finally set aside his ego and ambition, I think it would restore some goodwill among his fellow senators. Cruz’s time in the Senate has been marked by tactical debacles that could not even count as Pyrrhic victories for the party, most notoriously, the 2013 Shutdown. He has called his party’s floor leader a liar on the floor of the Senate and made enemies of all but a handful of his fellow Republican senators. This singular act could help Cruz become a more effective senator by getting rid of some of the bad blood between him and his fellow senators. The sooner he drops, the better it will be for him in the Senate.
Cruz should also drop because Rubio is in a MUCH stronger position to win the General Election. Even though there are only miniscule differences between the two, ideologically, Rubio is universally regarded as the more mainstream of the two and the bigger threat to Hillary Clinton. Cruz doomed his campaign from Day One when he mocked and wrote off the “Mushy Middle” of American politics, gambling his fate on an electorate of “courageous conservatives” who almost certainly do not exist in the numbers he claims. Even if they do exist, I am skeptical that they will make up for the independent and moderate voters he would lose and it seems foolish to put faith in the least-reliable group of voters (those who have not voted recently) AND my guess is that said “courageous conservatives” live in states that Mitt Romney won handily in 2012. This election will be won in the suburbs and cities of Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania- the sort of precincts that Rubio won in South Carolina on Saturday and which Cruz derided as “pockets of liberalism.” Northern Virginia, for example, is one such area that Cruz would have to win to win the White House, but his whole campaign is founded on a war against the “Washington Cartel” which means, in effect, that it is a war against NOVA voters. Cruz’s strategy was great for the primary season, but would be a disaster in the general election. There are not enough rural voters to compensate for losing urban voters so handily. Rubio, on the other hand, would probably do well enough in these precincts to pull off a White House victory.
Finally, Cruz should be the one to drop because there is nothing he can offer Rubio to drop. If Rubio loses this election, as the nominee or before, it only means that he will take a few months off before running for Governor of Florida. I do not believe, for one instant, that he has any interest in being Cruz’s running mate, nor should he. For one thing, Rubio would not add much to Cruz’s ticket in terms of demographics, experience, or ideology. For Cruz to have a viable shot in the general election, he will need to balance his ticket with a fairly moderate and experienced woman, preferably not from the South or Heartland. Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Kelly Ayotte, and Lisa Murkowski come to mind. Second, I do not think Rubio and Cruz would make a great team- the wounds they have inflicted on each other might be too deep for them to fully bury the hatchet. Third, I suppose each could offer the other a Cabinet position, but that gives neither an advantage in this stalemate. But Rubio has one trump card that could make the difference here: Antonin Scalia’s Supreme Court seat. Cruz, by virtue of his legal background, is qualified to be a Supreme Court justice. And he would the perfect replacement for the notoriously fiery Scalia. I have a difficult time imagining that Cruz would turn down such a prestigious offer, and I think his Senate colleagues would confirm him so that they could be rid of him once and for all. Everybody wins.
Unless Cruz and Rubio come to some sort of agreement, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. If the relationship between the two was not so acrimonious and if they, together, would make a good ticket, maybe the solution would be easier to find and for partisans of both sides to swallow. So, either Rubio offers Cruz the seat of Antonin Scalia in exchange for Cruz’s support or one of them will have to be noble and willingly sacrifice himself for the good of the party and country. Cruz cannot win the general election, but by sacrificing himself in this election, he could win back some of the friends he has lost in the Senate. As an added bonus, he would save money in his war chest for a future run at the Oval Office (if he does not end up getting Scalia’s seat). In short, there are many incentives for Cruz to shelve his presidential ambitions this year and support his fellow conservative Cuban-American, Marco Rubio. I hope some sort of agreement is quickly reached because the hour grows late and Trump is only becoming more powerful. Some have already proclaimed the race to be over, but it is not over yet. If Cruz drops out before Super Tuesday, Trump can be stopped.
As this awesome table shows, Marco Rubio is quickly gaining the support of the power-brokers in the GOP. While this might count against him in a year when the theme of both parties seems to be “burn down the establishment!” it is quite telling that Rubio has the support of thirteen of his Senate colleagues while Cruz does not have ANY support from his Senate colleagues (and, for what its worth, Rubio also has more support from House members). Neither Rand Paul, nor Mike Lee, nor Jeff Sessions (a man whose name Cruz uses a trump card whenever he can), nor even his fellow Texas Senator John Cornyn have yet been willing to endorse the Senator from Texas. This tells me that Rubio’s colleagues believe he will be the easiest to work with as president, while none of Cruz’s colleagues believe he would work with them in actually attempting to govern.
This lack of Senate support gives Cruz a major incentive to suspend his campaign. If Cruz ends his campaign now, I think it could be the first step to re-building some of the many bridges that he has burned with his Senate colleagues. If, in this most desperate of hours, Ted Cruz finally set aside his ego and ambition, I think it would restore some goodwill among his fellow senators. Cruz’s time in the Senate has been marked by tactical debacles that could not even count as Pyrrhic victories for the party, most notoriously, the 2013 Shutdown. He has called his party’s floor leader a liar on the floor of the Senate and made enemies of all but a handful of his fellow Republican senators. This singular act could help Cruz become a more effective senator by getting rid of some of the bad blood between him and his fellow senators. The sooner he drops, the better it will be for him in the Senate.
Cruz should also drop because Rubio is in a MUCH stronger position to win the General Election. Even though there are only miniscule differences between the two, ideologically, Rubio is universally regarded as the more mainstream of the two and the bigger threat to Hillary Clinton. Cruz doomed his campaign from Day One when he mocked and wrote off the “Mushy Middle” of American politics, gambling his fate on an electorate of “courageous conservatives” who almost certainly do not exist in the numbers he claims. Even if they do exist, I am skeptical that they will make up for the independent and moderate voters he would lose and it seems foolish to put faith in the least-reliable group of voters (those who have not voted recently) AND my guess is that said “courageous conservatives” live in states that Mitt Romney won handily in 2012. This election will be won in the suburbs and cities of Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania- the sort of precincts that Rubio won in South Carolina on Saturday and which Cruz derided as “pockets of liberalism.” Northern Virginia, for example, is one such area that Cruz would have to win to win the White House, but his whole campaign is founded on a war against the “Washington Cartel” which means, in effect, that it is a war against NOVA voters. Cruz’s strategy was great for the primary season, but would be a disaster in the general election. There are not enough rural voters to compensate for losing urban voters so handily. Rubio, on the other hand, would probably do well enough in these precincts to pull off a White House victory.
Finally, Cruz should be the one to drop because there is nothing he can offer Rubio to drop. If Rubio loses this election, as the nominee or before, it only means that he will take a few months off before running for Governor of Florida. I do not believe, for one instant, that he has any interest in being Cruz’s running mate, nor should he. For one thing, Rubio would not add much to Cruz’s ticket in terms of demographics, experience, or ideology. For Cruz to have a viable shot in the general election, he will need to balance his ticket with a fairly moderate and experienced woman, preferably not from the South or Heartland. Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Kelly Ayotte, and Lisa Murkowski come to mind. Second, I do not think Rubio and Cruz would make a great team- the wounds they have inflicted on each other might be too deep for them to fully bury the hatchet. Third, I suppose each could offer the other a Cabinet position, but that gives neither an advantage in this stalemate. But Rubio has one trump card that could make the difference here: Antonin Scalia’s Supreme Court seat. Cruz, by virtue of his legal background, is qualified to be a Supreme Court justice. And he would the perfect replacement for the notoriously fiery Scalia. I have a difficult time imagining that Cruz would turn down such a prestigious offer, and I think his Senate colleagues would confirm him so that they could be rid of him once and for all. Everybody wins.
Unless Cruz and Rubio come to some sort of agreement, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. If the relationship between the two was not so acrimonious and if they, together, would make a good ticket, maybe the solution would be easier to find and for partisans of both sides to swallow. So, either Rubio offers Cruz the seat of Antonin Scalia in exchange for Cruz’s support or one of them will have to be noble and willingly sacrifice himself for the good of the party and country. Cruz cannot win the general election, but by sacrificing himself in this election, he could win back some of the friends he has lost in the Senate. As an added bonus, he would save money in his war chest for a future run at the Oval Office (if he does not end up getting Scalia’s seat). In short, there are many incentives for Cruz to shelve his presidential ambitions this year and support his fellow conservative Cuban-American, Marco Rubio. I hope some sort of agreement is quickly reached because the hour grows late and Trump is only becoming more powerful. Some have already proclaimed the race to be over, but it is not over yet. If Cruz drops out before Super Tuesday, Trump can be stopped.
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