A couple of days ago, I tried to figure out who the “real” Donald Trump is (and I am not sure if such a thing exists). Now that it looks like Trump is going to win the South Carolina primary, I believe the time has come for the Republican Party to seriously assess what they should do about Trump. He is no longer a punchline; he is a serious threat to not only the GOP, but to the country. Last year, when he announced his campaign, Reince Priebus and many others (myself included) assumed he would launch a short-lived bid that would flame out within a couple months because of his reckless style of campaigning and habit of insulting everybody. But now that he has established himself as the nominal front-runner, play time is over. Unless the GOP power brokers act soon, the party will only be left with losing options.
Option 1- keep things going the way they are and do not interfere with the process.
Best Outcome- there is still a good chance that Marco Rubio could win enough states and capture enough party support to make the RNC a brokered convention. If that happens, Rubio’s powerful supporters in the party should be able to sway delegates after the first round of voting. If this happens, Trump’s supporters will not be able to justifiably claim that the RNC cheated them out of the nomination.
Worst Outcome- Trump secures the nomination by sweeping winner-take-all states. The GOP then loses in a McGovern-esque landslide in November, losing not only the White House (again), but also the Senate and possibly even the House of Representatives. The Republican Party never recovers from Trump’s oft-racist and inflammatory campaign. Another equally-bad outcome is that Trump somehow pulls off a win in November and puts the Republicans in the awkward position of being forced to try to work with him and form some semblance of an agenda. After two years of battles between Trump and Congress, the GOP loses the midterm elections in a landslide. Two years after that, Trump gets defeated in a landslide and the GOP brand never recovers.
Option 2- call Trump’s bluff and force him to run a third-party bid
Best Outcome- Marco Rubio or John Kasich wins a three-way race and builds a new conservative coalition that does not include the sort of racist nationalism espoused by most Trump supporters. The Republican Party then controls the White House for the next 24 years as Presidents Rubio, Haley, and Gardner all enjoy successful terms in the Oval Office. The GOP becomes more diverse and friendly towards Millennials and Trump’s presidential “campaign” is forgotten before too long.
Worst Outcome- The worst outcome here would be that Trump not only runs a third-party campaign, but ultimately wins. This would be a far less preferable outcome for the GOP than even losing to Hillary or Bernie because the Republicans on Capitol Hill would march in lock-step opposition to a Democratic president on important matters and the GOP would likely enjoy a landslide victory in the 2018 midterms (flipping Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe one or two other Senate seats). If the president is Trump, however, the Republican Congress will be in the awkward position of trying to decide when to work with Trump and when to fight him, with victories being very few and far between. The only saving grace here, from the RNC's perspective, is that the 2018 Senate map endangers only one or two Senate seats for the GOP. Thus, if Trump were to be president, Dean Heller might be the only Senate casualty in what would otherwise be a brutal midterm election for the party. Regardless, though, a Trump victory would mean four years of chaos that would reflect badly on the GOP, even though Trump won as an independent.
Analysis
There are other potential sub-strategies within these broad options, but it is quite clear that the Republican Party does not benefit in any way from having Trump as the nominee. Even if Trump runs as the nominee and wins in November, what does the Republican Party ultimately gain? Basically, nothing. They would get a president who is nominally affiliated with their party, but would be a complete wild card on every single issue. Trump’s past is so checkered and so full of inconsistencies, he would be just as likely to rule as the most liberal president since FDR as he would be to rule as a conservative. Ultimately, the party would be better served by having him lose the general election than having him win; because at least if he loses, he would be quickly out of the picture and the party can get back to re-building, but more in accordance with the post-2012 autopsy. In either case, though, having Trump as the standard-bearer of the party would cripple the GOP’s efforts to not only win elections, but also grow the party for decades to come. The stench of the barely-veiled white supremacy underlying much of his support would destroy the party’s already-feeble attempts to attract voters who are not old, white, evangelical conservatives. As the country becomes less white, a post-Trump GOP will struggle to even be competitive against the Democratic supermajority. Simply put, there are absolutely no short or long-term benefits for Republicans to nominate Trump.
The RNC should have called Trump’s bluff months ago. Reince must make it clear that the RNC will not do anything on his behalf should he win the nomination. Even if they cannot make donations to other candidates, Reince and powerful Republican politicians should openly express their support for a 3rd party candidate if Trump secures the nomination (similar to how the Tennessee Democrats reacted to the nomination of Mark Clayton in 2012). The best outcome here (Rubio winning the general election over Trump and the other Democrat) is a vastly superior outcome to any that involve Trump as the nominee. But even if a Democrat wins the general election, this outcome is preferable to having Trump win as the GOP nominee. The GOP would be united against the Democrat’s agenda and it would show that the party valued integrity over winning. In the long-term, the party would be so much better having built bridges instead of walls to minority communities.
The RNC thought they could avoid the Trump problem by simply waiting for his campaign to die out. They thought that if they played nice with him, Trump would not launch an independent bid and would instead encourage his supporters to back the eventual nominee once he suspended his campaign. In doing so, they failed to heed the words of the great Winston Churchill, "an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." Well, the crocodile is now poised to consume the GOP as it continues its campaign of destruction. It now appears more likely than not that Trump could win the nomination and force the GOP to make a Faustian Pact of supporting the devil and selling their souls just to keep a Democrat out of the White House. Even worse, however, is the fact that this Faustian Pact is unlikely to pay any dividends, at least as far as conservatives are concerned. Because this is starting to look more and more likely, the RNC must cut their losses and break any and all ties with Donald Trump. Even if they lose without him, they can return to fight another day by disavowing him. But with Trump, the only possible outcomes all amount to losses of far greater severity than any losses that might result from cutting ties with him. Therefore, if the GOP wants to have a bright future, it is in there interest to place their bets on the likes of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott rather than to desperately gamble on a man who is the antithesis of conservatism and is as trustworthy as a cornered viper.
Option 1- keep things going the way they are and do not interfere with the process.
Best Outcome- there is still a good chance that Marco Rubio could win enough states and capture enough party support to make the RNC a brokered convention. If that happens, Rubio’s powerful supporters in the party should be able to sway delegates after the first round of voting. If this happens, Trump’s supporters will not be able to justifiably claim that the RNC cheated them out of the nomination.
Worst Outcome- Trump secures the nomination by sweeping winner-take-all states. The GOP then loses in a McGovern-esque landslide in November, losing not only the White House (again), but also the Senate and possibly even the House of Representatives. The Republican Party never recovers from Trump’s oft-racist and inflammatory campaign. Another equally-bad outcome is that Trump somehow pulls off a win in November and puts the Republicans in the awkward position of being forced to try to work with him and form some semblance of an agenda. After two years of battles between Trump and Congress, the GOP loses the midterm elections in a landslide. Two years after that, Trump gets defeated in a landslide and the GOP brand never recovers.
Option 2- call Trump’s bluff and force him to run a third-party bid
Best Outcome- Marco Rubio or John Kasich wins a three-way race and builds a new conservative coalition that does not include the sort of racist nationalism espoused by most Trump supporters. The Republican Party then controls the White House for the next 24 years as Presidents Rubio, Haley, and Gardner all enjoy successful terms in the Oval Office. The GOP becomes more diverse and friendly towards Millennials and Trump’s presidential “campaign” is forgotten before too long.
Worst Outcome- The worst outcome here would be that Trump not only runs a third-party campaign, but ultimately wins. This would be a far less preferable outcome for the GOP than even losing to Hillary or Bernie because the Republicans on Capitol Hill would march in lock-step opposition to a Democratic president on important matters and the GOP would likely enjoy a landslide victory in the 2018 midterms (flipping Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe one or two other Senate seats). If the president is Trump, however, the Republican Congress will be in the awkward position of trying to decide when to work with Trump and when to fight him, with victories being very few and far between. The only saving grace here, from the RNC's perspective, is that the 2018 Senate map endangers only one or two Senate seats for the GOP. Thus, if Trump were to be president, Dean Heller might be the only Senate casualty in what would otherwise be a brutal midterm election for the party. Regardless, though, a Trump victory would mean four years of chaos that would reflect badly on the GOP, even though Trump won as an independent.
Analysis
There are other potential sub-strategies within these broad options, but it is quite clear that the Republican Party does not benefit in any way from having Trump as the nominee. Even if Trump runs as the nominee and wins in November, what does the Republican Party ultimately gain? Basically, nothing. They would get a president who is nominally affiliated with their party, but would be a complete wild card on every single issue. Trump’s past is so checkered and so full of inconsistencies, he would be just as likely to rule as the most liberal president since FDR as he would be to rule as a conservative. Ultimately, the party would be better served by having him lose the general election than having him win; because at least if he loses, he would be quickly out of the picture and the party can get back to re-building, but more in accordance with the post-2012 autopsy. In either case, though, having Trump as the standard-bearer of the party would cripple the GOP’s efforts to not only win elections, but also grow the party for decades to come. The stench of the barely-veiled white supremacy underlying much of his support would destroy the party’s already-feeble attempts to attract voters who are not old, white, evangelical conservatives. As the country becomes less white, a post-Trump GOP will struggle to even be competitive against the Democratic supermajority. Simply put, there are absolutely no short or long-term benefits for Republicans to nominate Trump.
The RNC should have called Trump’s bluff months ago. Reince must make it clear that the RNC will not do anything on his behalf should he win the nomination. Even if they cannot make donations to other candidates, Reince and powerful Republican politicians should openly express their support for a 3rd party candidate if Trump secures the nomination (similar to how the Tennessee Democrats reacted to the nomination of Mark Clayton in 2012). The best outcome here (Rubio winning the general election over Trump and the other Democrat) is a vastly superior outcome to any that involve Trump as the nominee. But even if a Democrat wins the general election, this outcome is preferable to having Trump win as the GOP nominee. The GOP would be united against the Democrat’s agenda and it would show that the party valued integrity over winning. In the long-term, the party would be so much better having built bridges instead of walls to minority communities.
The RNC thought they could avoid the Trump problem by simply waiting for his campaign to die out. They thought that if they played nice with him, Trump would not launch an independent bid and would instead encourage his supporters to back the eventual nominee once he suspended his campaign. In doing so, they failed to heed the words of the great Winston Churchill, "an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." Well, the crocodile is now poised to consume the GOP as it continues its campaign of destruction. It now appears more likely than not that Trump could win the nomination and force the GOP to make a Faustian Pact of supporting the devil and selling their souls just to keep a Democrat out of the White House. Even worse, however, is the fact that this Faustian Pact is unlikely to pay any dividends, at least as far as conservatives are concerned. Because this is starting to look more and more likely, the RNC must cut their losses and break any and all ties with Donald Trump. Even if they lose without him, they can return to fight another day by disavowing him. But with Trump, the only possible outcomes all amount to losses of far greater severity than any losses that might result from cutting ties with him. Therefore, if the GOP wants to have a bright future, it is in there interest to place their bets on the likes of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott rather than to desperately gamble on a man who is the antithesis of conservatism and is as trustworthy as a cornered viper.
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