Several weeks ago, while I was finishing up the crucible of grading, final papers, and general end of the semester mayhem, three more Republicans all entered the increasingly crowded ring at once: Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee. And just this week, two more joined them: Rick Santorum and George Pataki. Although I will look at each candidate individually for their strengths and weaknesses, the end result is more or less the same: none of these candidates will represent the GOP at the top of the ticket next year.
Ben Carson- the neurosurgeon beloved by evangelical Republicans
Strengths
Carson does have several things going for him. First, obviously, is the element of racial diversity he brings to the Republican race (although conservative blacks are often the targets of the most savage criticism from the left- see Clarence Thomas, Allen West, Tim Scott, Alan Keyes, Herman Cain, etc...). In a party so maligned for being "racist," Carson's campaign can only be beneficial. Second, he is a true political outsider, which could give him a bit of a boost in certain contests, especially among Tea Partiers sick of career politicians (Jeb Bush, for example). Finally, he has a life story that is as American as it gets- a true rags to riches story of a boy born into poverty who went on to become one of America's most successful neurosurgeons. Were he running for any other office, he would be a strong contender with this kind of a resume.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately for Carson, some of these strengths are also weaknesses. As mentioned above, black conservatives often have a difficult time succeeding in American politics. This is not, I believe, the fault of Republicans, but rather the result of the overwhelming political homogeneity of African-Americans. Carson was once a hero of the black community for being the first surgeon to successfully separate twins joined at the head, but he is now denounced as a "traitor" for coming out as a conservative.
In the primary, however, Carson's main weakness will be his political inexperience. The presidency is not the best office to hold as a first time office-holder requiring a steep learning curve, even for the most experienced politicians (Neustadt, 1960). Carson will likely dismiss this by pointing out that politics cannot be more difficult than neurosurgery, and he is right- in some respects. Nothing in politics will be quite as technically demanding as neurosurgery, especially the types of decisions a president would have to make (Reagan, for example, tried to avoid getting mired up in the details). On the other hand, neuroscience and the other "hard" sciences are far more bound by laws that are always true than government is. Political science may make use of the scientific method, but the only law of politics I have found to be universally accepted is the truism that politics is always ultimately about power. Every other law of politics is susceptible to change and to reconsideration- for example the once-eternal truth that the South would always vote Democratic. The point of all this is to say that neuroscience may be a difficult field in which to succeed, but it is tough to adequately compare it to the office of the presidency. As President Noah Daniels from 24 said,
"Nothing about this job lends itself to simple answers, just...jagged edges and moving parts. Most you won't see even coming till they've smacked you in the head." Experience, therefore, is preferable to inexperience and it will be a handicap for Dr. Carson.
His other main weakness is his campaign inexperience, which lends itself to "foot in the mouth syndrome"- a problem that plagues all candidates at one point or another, but requires skill to handle correctly. Carson has already been victimized by this in this cycle- claiming that being gay is a choice and prison somehow proves this. He was mercilessly crucified in the press for that comment and it will likely continue to hurt his already-slim chances.
Carly Fiorina- the former HP CEO who lost her only electoral campaign in 2010
Strengths
Like Ben Carson, Carly does bring some things to the table that no other candidates really seem to bring even if her electoral experience is limited to practically nothing. In an attempt to diminish the Democratic advantage among women, Carly will almost surely see some time on the debate stage in the primaries so that the GOP does not appear to be made of only men. This will give her a chance to introduce herself more to the American people and the Republican electorate. Moreover, she is also like Carson in that she has a life story that epitomizes the American Dream- working her way up to being the CEO of Hewlett-Packard, even if her beginnings were not quite as humble as Carson's or Cruz's.
Politically, Fiorina is actually more conservative than one would expect from a California Republican, but is closer to the average American than most of her co-candidates. She is pro-life (with exceptions), supportive of civil unions for gay couples, supportive of gun rights, and even supportive of a legal path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. She also argues that climate change is real, but government has no real power to stop it (which is close to my own thoughts on that matter). So, on the whole, I would classify her as a pragmatic moderate conservative- a trait that will put her high on VP lists if someone like Rubio or Walker wins the nomination (someone even more conservative would have to start thinking of figures like Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, or Shelley Moore Capito).
One other strength Carly seems to have, at this point, is a bulldog mentality that makes her willing to attack Hillary Clinton. She is fearless and willing to debate. I suspect her term as CEO of HP has contributed to this willingness to be a boss and try to get her own way- traits reminiscent of a certain British PM of the 1980's...
Weaknesses
Fiorina's business career is likely to be her worst liability- especially since the Board of Directors forced her resignation in 2005. Fiorina's legacy is split between her admirers and her critics, with roughly even numbers of both. The fact that her tenure saw a loss in American jobs will be a hard sell in the memory of Romney's business decisions, for example. Fiorina considers herself to be a successful businesswoman, but the memory of her tenure is apparently not very rosy among her former colleagues and employees.
Carly's other big problem is the memory of her disastrous 2010 campaign for Senate. For the most politically interested, the only real memory of that campaign is her notorious "Demon Sheep" ad that she used against then-favorite Tom Campbell in the Republican primary. I use this ad when teaching my students about negative campaign ads as the bizarre ad does just about everything wrong, yet was still successful. In addition, her 2010 campaign is remembered for being a failed endeavor in an otherwise-tsunami of a year for the Republican Party. Had she won that race, however, she would be considered a front-runner for this coming election being the senator of the most liberal of states and having defeated one of the GOP's greatest enemies in Barbara Boxer. She lost, however, and by double digits which makes that race a liability more than a strength.
Finally, Carly just is not that well-known outside of political nerds and former HP employees. She does not have the kind of devoted following that Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee appear to have, so it seems unlikely that she will suddenly emerge next year in a primary.
Mike Huckabee- the pastor and economic populist who is doubling down on social issues
Strengths
Huckabee's main strength is his relative likability and his appeal to many Americans. Say what you want about the man's policies, but he is a genuinely likable individual who possesses a strong sense of humor and a willingness to articulate his moral stances. Honestly, however, that is about it as far as I can think of his strengths- at least for a general election.
In the primaries, Huckabee will likely win a primary or two because of his appeal to evangelical voters. He will, of course, have some competition in these contests from Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum, but I think he will prevail in at least one of the contests. Social issues, especially opposition to gay marriage, appear to be the impetus for his campaign and he will probably win a couple of primaries in those states dominated by conservatives who continue to staunchly oppose gay marriage (even after the Court legalizes gay marriage everywhere this summer).
Weaknesses
Huckabee is a political has-been. There is no other way really to describe him. 2008 was his heyday and it has only been downhill from there. In 2008, he was the base's choice against the McCain campaign, and so conservatives were willing to overlook his fiscal liberalism. Not so anymore. Many people who were Huckabee supporters in 2008 have either liberalized their views on marriage or have embraced another champion- be it Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, or someone else. It is truly difficult to see Huckabee cracking double-digits in next year's primaries.
If he somehow won the primary, he would be doomed in the general election. His determination to defeat gay marriage primarily on theological grounds would seem reactionary and alienate potential voters. It is unlikely that the Republican nominee next year will completely endorse gay marriage, but I suspect that the eventual nominee will try to minimize the issue since the Supreme Court will almost certainly legalize it across the country and the nominee will not want to lose votes over a dead issue. Huckabee, however, seems intent on campaigning solely on that issue and he would not win on it.
Finally, Huckabee has a fiscal record that is anything but "conservative." He appears to think that government spending can be a good thing and has no problem with tax hikes. At this point, fiscal conservatism is the heart of the modern GOP and Huckabee does not have a record remotely resembling this. Conservatives largely ignored this in 2008, but they will not ignore it this time.
Rick Santorum- the scrappy big government conservative from Pennsylvania
Strengths
Santorum has several strengths that could make him a contender in next year's primaries. First, he has the advantage of coming in second last time. Mitt Romney, John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan all came in second in the last competitive primary cycle before their nominations, so Santorum does have that going for him. The second advantage is closely related: Santorum does have adequate name recognition (not always for the best reasons) and can rally evangelical supporters among the Republican base. Finally, Santorum is putting forward a populist economic plan that can tap into a primarily Democratic constituency- union members and manufacturers. He is not placing fiscal conservatism at the heart of his campaign, so he might win some primary votes in Appalachia and other rust belt areas.
Weaknesses
Much of Santorum's political career has been the result of uncanny political luck. He won the PA Senate race in 1994 due to the Republican Revolution and a weak Democratic opponent in incumbent Senator Harris Wofford, who was serving out the rest of John Heinz's term. In 2000, Santorum was able to win reelection because the Democrats nominated an even weaker opponent in Congressman Ron Klink, who was unknown outside of Pittsburgh. His luck ran out in 2006 when Bob Casey Jr. annihilated him in the Democratic wave of that year, but his luck returned when he was able to unite the anti-Romney vote in several primaries en route to finishing second. This time, he will face far younger and more powerful primary opponents (Rubio, Paul, Walker, Cruz, for instance) and will have a harder time winning protest votes.
Ideologically, Santorum faces the same challenges as Huckabee. Social conservatism was strong in 2004, but is not strong any more. Santorum's pro-life credentials work in his favor, but his unrepentant opposition to gay marriage is no longer politically tenable. Economically, Santorum is also a big-government conservative opposed to free trade and anti-union policies, neither of which will win him a majority of primary voters. Finally, Santorum is part of a cabal of Republicans clinging to the neoconservatism of 2004 that calls for bombing everyone all the time and intervening in every conflict. Although hawkish foreign policy is still somewhat popular in the GOP, it's support is dwindling, especially among young Republicans. The party and the nation have changed in the nearly 10.5 years since George Bush defeated John Kerry, but Rick Santorum has not. And that is why he will go nowhere next year.
George Pataki- Former New York Governor and statesman
Strengths
Pataki is a candidate better built for a general election than a primary. He could potentially win a primary or two in more liberal states, like New York or Massachusetts, but he would be as likely to win the Texas primary as Gary Ridgway. Pataki is left-of-center on social issues, a strong fiscal conservative, and appears to have fairly hawkish foreign policy views. In a general election, he could probably unite libertarians, hawks, environmentalists, and fiscal conservatives, while risking the votes of social conservatives- this is a potentially winnable coalition of centrists.
Weaknesses
Honestly, Pataki is pretty much a "has-been" as well.
Ben Carson- the neurosurgeon beloved by evangelical Republicans
Strengths
Carson does have several things going for him. First, obviously, is the element of racial diversity he brings to the Republican race (although conservative blacks are often the targets of the most savage criticism from the left- see Clarence Thomas, Allen West, Tim Scott, Alan Keyes, Herman Cain, etc...). In a party so maligned for being "racist," Carson's campaign can only be beneficial. Second, he is a true political outsider, which could give him a bit of a boost in certain contests, especially among Tea Partiers sick of career politicians (Jeb Bush, for example). Finally, he has a life story that is as American as it gets- a true rags to riches story of a boy born into poverty who went on to become one of America's most successful neurosurgeons. Were he running for any other office, he would be a strong contender with this kind of a resume.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately for Carson, some of these strengths are also weaknesses. As mentioned above, black conservatives often have a difficult time succeeding in American politics. This is not, I believe, the fault of Republicans, but rather the result of the overwhelming political homogeneity of African-Americans. Carson was once a hero of the black community for being the first surgeon to successfully separate twins joined at the head, but he is now denounced as a "traitor" for coming out as a conservative.
In the primary, however, Carson's main weakness will be his political inexperience. The presidency is not the best office to hold as a first time office-holder requiring a steep learning curve, even for the most experienced politicians (Neustadt, 1960). Carson will likely dismiss this by pointing out that politics cannot be more difficult than neurosurgery, and he is right- in some respects. Nothing in politics will be quite as technically demanding as neurosurgery, especially the types of decisions a president would have to make (Reagan, for example, tried to avoid getting mired up in the details). On the other hand, neuroscience and the other "hard" sciences are far more bound by laws that are always true than government is. Political science may make use of the scientific method, but the only law of politics I have found to be universally accepted is the truism that politics is always ultimately about power. Every other law of politics is susceptible to change and to reconsideration- for example the once-eternal truth that the South would always vote Democratic. The point of all this is to say that neuroscience may be a difficult field in which to succeed, but it is tough to adequately compare it to the office of the presidency. As President Noah Daniels from 24 said,
"Nothing about this job lends itself to simple answers, just...jagged edges and moving parts. Most you won't see even coming till they've smacked you in the head." Experience, therefore, is preferable to inexperience and it will be a handicap for Dr. Carson.
His other main weakness is his campaign inexperience, which lends itself to "foot in the mouth syndrome"- a problem that plagues all candidates at one point or another, but requires skill to handle correctly. Carson has already been victimized by this in this cycle- claiming that being gay is a choice and prison somehow proves this. He was mercilessly crucified in the press for that comment and it will likely continue to hurt his already-slim chances.
Carly Fiorina- the former HP CEO who lost her only electoral campaign in 2010
Strengths
Like Ben Carson, Carly does bring some things to the table that no other candidates really seem to bring even if her electoral experience is limited to practically nothing. In an attempt to diminish the Democratic advantage among women, Carly will almost surely see some time on the debate stage in the primaries so that the GOP does not appear to be made of only men. This will give her a chance to introduce herself more to the American people and the Republican electorate. Moreover, she is also like Carson in that she has a life story that epitomizes the American Dream- working her way up to being the CEO of Hewlett-Packard, even if her beginnings were not quite as humble as Carson's or Cruz's.
Politically, Fiorina is actually more conservative than one would expect from a California Republican, but is closer to the average American than most of her co-candidates. She is pro-life (with exceptions), supportive of civil unions for gay couples, supportive of gun rights, and even supportive of a legal path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. She also argues that climate change is real, but government has no real power to stop it (which is close to my own thoughts on that matter). So, on the whole, I would classify her as a pragmatic moderate conservative- a trait that will put her high on VP lists if someone like Rubio or Walker wins the nomination (someone even more conservative would have to start thinking of figures like Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, or Shelley Moore Capito).
One other strength Carly seems to have, at this point, is a bulldog mentality that makes her willing to attack Hillary Clinton. She is fearless and willing to debate. I suspect her term as CEO of HP has contributed to this willingness to be a boss and try to get her own way- traits reminiscent of a certain British PM of the 1980's...
Weaknesses
Fiorina's business career is likely to be her worst liability- especially since the Board of Directors forced her resignation in 2005. Fiorina's legacy is split between her admirers and her critics, with roughly even numbers of both. The fact that her tenure saw a loss in American jobs will be a hard sell in the memory of Romney's business decisions, for example. Fiorina considers herself to be a successful businesswoman, but the memory of her tenure is apparently not very rosy among her former colleagues and employees.
Carly's other big problem is the memory of her disastrous 2010 campaign for Senate. For the most politically interested, the only real memory of that campaign is her notorious "Demon Sheep" ad that she used against then-favorite Tom Campbell in the Republican primary. I use this ad when teaching my students about negative campaign ads as the bizarre ad does just about everything wrong, yet was still successful. In addition, her 2010 campaign is remembered for being a failed endeavor in an otherwise-tsunami of a year for the Republican Party. Had she won that race, however, she would be considered a front-runner for this coming election being the senator of the most liberal of states and having defeated one of the GOP's greatest enemies in Barbara Boxer. She lost, however, and by double digits which makes that race a liability more than a strength.
Finally, Carly just is not that well-known outside of political nerds and former HP employees. She does not have the kind of devoted following that Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee appear to have, so it seems unlikely that she will suddenly emerge next year in a primary.
Mike Huckabee- the pastor and economic populist who is doubling down on social issues
Strengths
Huckabee's main strength is his relative likability and his appeal to many Americans. Say what you want about the man's policies, but he is a genuinely likable individual who possesses a strong sense of humor and a willingness to articulate his moral stances. Honestly, however, that is about it as far as I can think of his strengths- at least for a general election.
In the primaries, Huckabee will likely win a primary or two because of his appeal to evangelical voters. He will, of course, have some competition in these contests from Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum, but I think he will prevail in at least one of the contests. Social issues, especially opposition to gay marriage, appear to be the impetus for his campaign and he will probably win a couple of primaries in those states dominated by conservatives who continue to staunchly oppose gay marriage (even after the Court legalizes gay marriage everywhere this summer).
Weaknesses
Huckabee is a political has-been. There is no other way really to describe him. 2008 was his heyday and it has only been downhill from there. In 2008, he was the base's choice against the McCain campaign, and so conservatives were willing to overlook his fiscal liberalism. Not so anymore. Many people who were Huckabee supporters in 2008 have either liberalized their views on marriage or have embraced another champion- be it Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, or someone else. It is truly difficult to see Huckabee cracking double-digits in next year's primaries.
If he somehow won the primary, he would be doomed in the general election. His determination to defeat gay marriage primarily on theological grounds would seem reactionary and alienate potential voters. It is unlikely that the Republican nominee next year will completely endorse gay marriage, but I suspect that the eventual nominee will try to minimize the issue since the Supreme Court will almost certainly legalize it across the country and the nominee will not want to lose votes over a dead issue. Huckabee, however, seems intent on campaigning solely on that issue and he would not win on it.
Finally, Huckabee has a fiscal record that is anything but "conservative." He appears to think that government spending can be a good thing and has no problem with tax hikes. At this point, fiscal conservatism is the heart of the modern GOP and Huckabee does not have a record remotely resembling this. Conservatives largely ignored this in 2008, but they will not ignore it this time.
Rick Santorum- the scrappy big government conservative from Pennsylvania
Strengths
Santorum has several strengths that could make him a contender in next year's primaries. First, he has the advantage of coming in second last time. Mitt Romney, John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan all came in second in the last competitive primary cycle before their nominations, so Santorum does have that going for him. The second advantage is closely related: Santorum does have adequate name recognition (not always for the best reasons) and can rally evangelical supporters among the Republican base. Finally, Santorum is putting forward a populist economic plan that can tap into a primarily Democratic constituency- union members and manufacturers. He is not placing fiscal conservatism at the heart of his campaign, so he might win some primary votes in Appalachia and other rust belt areas.
Weaknesses
Much of Santorum's political career has been the result of uncanny political luck. He won the PA Senate race in 1994 due to the Republican Revolution and a weak Democratic opponent in incumbent Senator Harris Wofford, who was serving out the rest of John Heinz's term. In 2000, Santorum was able to win reelection because the Democrats nominated an even weaker opponent in Congressman Ron Klink, who was unknown outside of Pittsburgh. His luck ran out in 2006 when Bob Casey Jr. annihilated him in the Democratic wave of that year, but his luck returned when he was able to unite the anti-Romney vote in several primaries en route to finishing second. This time, he will face far younger and more powerful primary opponents (Rubio, Paul, Walker, Cruz, for instance) and will have a harder time winning protest votes.
Ideologically, Santorum faces the same challenges as Huckabee. Social conservatism was strong in 2004, but is not strong any more. Santorum's pro-life credentials work in his favor, but his unrepentant opposition to gay marriage is no longer politically tenable. Economically, Santorum is also a big-government conservative opposed to free trade and anti-union policies, neither of which will win him a majority of primary voters. Finally, Santorum is part of a cabal of Republicans clinging to the neoconservatism of 2004 that calls for bombing everyone all the time and intervening in every conflict. Although hawkish foreign policy is still somewhat popular in the GOP, it's support is dwindling, especially among young Republicans. The party and the nation have changed in the nearly 10.5 years since George Bush defeated John Kerry, but Rick Santorum has not. And that is why he will go nowhere next year.
George Pataki- Former New York Governor and statesman
Strengths
Pataki is a candidate better built for a general election than a primary. He could potentially win a primary or two in more liberal states, like New York or Massachusetts, but he would be as likely to win the Texas primary as Gary Ridgway. Pataki is left-of-center on social issues, a strong fiscal conservative, and appears to have fairly hawkish foreign policy views. In a general election, he could probably unite libertarians, hawks, environmentalists, and fiscal conservatives, while risking the votes of social conservatives- this is a potentially winnable coalition of centrists.
Weaknesses
Honestly, Pataki is pretty much a "has-been" as well.
RSS Feed
