Recently, Hillary Clinton surprised absolutely nobody by declaring her campaign for president. Although her method was unconventional (and perhaps trend-setting, we will see) her announcement took the political world by storm and cemented the conventional wisdom that she is the all-but-certain nominee for the Democrats next year. Overshadowed by her announcement was the subsequent announcement made by Florida Senator Marco Rubio that he, too, is joining the fray and will seek the Republican nomination for president. In Part IV of our indefinite-part series on the 2016 candidates, we will see if Rubio has what it takes to win the nomination and ultimately the White House.
Strengths
Let's start with the man, himself. Marco Rubio is a young, good-looking, Hispanic Senator from one of the most crucial states in the Electoral College- Florida. Honestly, if he had a (D) after his name instead of an (R), the media would likely dub this a "new age of Camelot," as both he and his wife have movie-star caliber looks and are rather young, to boot (Rubio will be 44 next month). Rubio is generally considered to be a dynamic speaker with an inspirational life story who can connect with new voters in ways that few other candidates can. He is strongly conservative, but utilizes a much friendlier form of conservatism than many Republican candidates. Rubio, in short, is the kind of candidate and person one envisions when thinking about the President of the United States.
Of all potential Republican candidates, Marco Rubio is one of the two candidates with the best shot of uniting the GOP by being acceptable to all factions. The other, of course, is Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Why is this? Well, first of all, he was elected as a Tea Party Republican. Yes, a Tea Party Republican. Five years ago, Rubio shocked the political world by defeating then-popular Governor Charlie Crist in the GOP primary (forcing Crist out of the primary before the actual vote), the candidate backed by the NRSC and the general "establishment" of the Florida Republican Party. Rubio then went on to win the general election, a three-way contest where Crist ran as an independent. At the time of his election, Rubio was considered to be the "crown prince of the Tea Party" for being the Tea Party's greatest victory in that election cycle.
Now, Rubio is considered to be an "establishment" favorite, since he has gone to DC and not made a circus out of it, unlike Ted Cruz. In other words, Rubio has operated within the system and enjoyed some degree of success in the Senate (even if his attempts at immigration reform with the "Gang of Eight" failed). Rubio has, in short, managed to experience the "best of both worlds." He has been a pragmatic conservative and thus endeared himself to the Washington politicos who tried to derail his political career by supporting Crist in 2010.
With his careful balancing act, Rubio sets himself up well for a general election race. Although his Cuban heritage is an obvious asset to him from the start, so is his willingness to attempt some kind of comprehensive immigration reform- an issue that the GOP better start endorsing lest they become a permanent political minority in the face of long-term demographic shifts. Rubio's delicate balancing act distinguishes him from firebrands like Cruz, Paul, and Santorum, but also allows him to portray himself as a fresh face in a race that is currently highlighted by two of America's noble families- the Clintons and the Bushes. Rubio's voting record is very conservative, but his demeanor is likable and optimistic. Rubio, in short, is a candidate tailor-made for a national general election.
Weaknesses
First and foremost, even though Rubio is tailor-made for a general election, he will have a difficulty time separating himself from the pack during primary season. My guess is that he will be the second or third choice for most Republican primary voters, not their first. Sure, Rubio has some supporters, but he does not have the cult-like loyalty enjoyed by Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, nor does he have the insider financial backing of figures like Jeb Bush. It is easy to imagine Rubio performing respectably in a number of primaries, but not getting any delegates. In Iowa, for instance, Rubio's gentler social conservatism will probably be overshadowed by Ted Cruz and by Scott Walker (who has the regional advantage in that contest). Rubio might not even win his home state, as he will probably the second choice of Floridians after the popular ex-governor, Jeb Bush.
There are several reasons why he would not be the first choice of primary voters. Although his support for immigration reform will be an asset in a general election, it will be a huge liability during primary season, as it will not sit well with the conservative base that actually votes in the primaries. And that's really the only policy knock on Rubio, but it is a huge one for the base. On just about any other issue, Rubio is as ideologically conservative as the likes of Ted Cruz, just not as fiery about it. This calm demeanor could also harm his attempts to win over the base; a base that would rather have someone throw them red meat than calmly articulate the same points.
Should he win the primary contests, his main weaknesses would be his comparatively short resume against Hillary Clinton and the fact that his introduction to the American people fell rather flat (the infamous awkward drink of water episode). Unfortunately for Rubio, his political experience is only marginally more extensive than Obama's was in 2008, being a first term junior senator. This was a major talking point against Obama by Republicans in 2008, so it would seem hypocritical for the GOP to try to portray their 2016 candidate as somehow ready for the job when Obama was not. Clinton, on the other hand, has served more time in the Senate and has held the most important executive branch position under the president, Secretary of State. Rubio has some foreign policy credentials, but only the most blind partisan would somehow argue that Rubio has more foreign policy qualifications than Mrs. Clinton has. It will be an obstacle that he has to overcome.
As for the water episode, hopefully it is water under the bridge (pun intended). Rubio, to his credit, responded to that incident in just about the best way imaginable- he laughed at himself and then turned it into a marketing ploy on behalf of his war chest. He proved in that episode that he has a great sense of humor and can laugh at himself (which is a trait that we do not really see in President Obama).
Finally, like every other Republican who has a legitimate shot at the nomination, Rubio will be fighting an uphill battle against the Clinton machine and her unquestionable advantage of being potentially the first woman to occupy the White House. Rubio could take away some of that advantage by being the first Hispanic nominee, but somehow that just does not feel as monumental as having the first female president. Running with Susana Martinez, however, could help him further.
Conclusion
Personally, I think Rubio should have stayed put for the time being and he should have concentrated on defending his seat in the US Senate. The time just does not feel quite right for Senator Rubio- he has too many primary opponents and not enough dedicated support to stand out in such a crowded field. Furthermore, he likely will not win the primary of his home state, being the second choice of Floridians. Instead, he will have vacated his seat in the Senate for a presidential campaign that will likely be over after Jeb wins the Florida primaries.
If he does fail to capture the White House next year, I do see two paths for him to return to prominence. In the first path, Rubio runs as the vice presidential nominee for the GOP either in 2016 or 2020. I doubt that he will be the VP choice next year, however, since I think the GOP will try to balance Hillary's gender advantage by running a top-tier female candidate in the VP slot (most likely Kelly Ayotte, Susana Martinez, or maybe even Nikki Haley). There are too many variables right now to even begin contemplating the 2020 VP story, but Rubio's name would certainly be among them. The other path to restoring his political career is the Florida route. Governor Rick Scott will be term-limited at the end of this term, so Rubio could run for Governor of Florida and remain a prominent politician within the Republican Party. Assuming Hillary wins the White House next year, and again in 2020, Rubio would be in the middle of his second term as Governor of Florida when 2024 comes around. By that point, Rubio would likely be the undisputed frontrunner when announcing his presidential campaign.
For now, however, Rubio will have a daunting task in trying to win primaries and caucuses in a super-crowded field where he will likely flounder as the second or third place winner of every contest.
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