This morning, Ted Cruz has made it official: he is running for president. This announcement should hardly surprise anyone; the ambitious Cruz has been in campaign mode ever since he upset David Dewhurst for the Texas Republican nomination for senate. The question on everyone's lips, however, is this: does he have a shot?
The short answer is easy: of course he has a shot. Barack Obama was the definition of a longshot when he launched his campaign in 2007 and he surprised everyone by defeating the Clinton machine. Why should we think that another first term senator cannot pull off another upset against the Clinton machine?
The longer answer is slightly different. He may have a shot, but the odds are not exactly in his favor at the moment. Despite only being in the senate for a little over two years, Cruz has accumulated some baggage that will be tough to overcome, especially if he wins the Republican nomination. He would be a decisive underdog against Clinton, but would definitely have a fighter's chance. The odds would be more favorable for him against someone like Liz Warren or Bernie Sanders. The bottom line is this: it is too early to set precise odds, but anyone betting on Cruz would probably have a massive payday if he pulled off a victory.
Strengths
Let's first examine Ted Cruz's strengths. Having observed him in Larry Sabato's Introduction to American Politics class last year, two strengths immediately come to mind. First, he is not afraid of anybody. He will boldly address a room full of (mostly) liberal college kids and open himself up to any question on anyone's mind. He is confident and sure of his abilities. The second strength is closely related: he is probably the best debater of anyone running for president in 2016, Republican or Democrat. A world class debater at Princeton, Ted Cruz will hold his own, at the very least, with any other candidate (if not outright destroy them). In short, Cruz is a pitbull when it comes to debates- he fears nobody and is a skilled fighter.
There are some other aspects of Senator Cruz that definitely constitute strengths. For one thing, he is extremely popular with grassroots and Tea Party activists. His campaign theme is already downright demagogic (just watch his Michael Bay-esque ad that also echoes of Tim Pawlenty's infamous ad) and he can carry that populist excitement to victory in states like Iowa and South Carolina. In places where the Tea Party is still strong (ie: the South, Midwest, and Interior West), Cruz will probably do very well in the primaries. Another strength of Cruz is his quintessentially American life story. Although some questions are being raised about his eligibility (questions that I believe are non-issues), his rags-to-riches story is as American as it gets. Combine that with his Hispanic heritage, and it is easy to see why he has some support.
Weaknesses
Now let us to turn to his weaknesses. No, Jerry Brown, Cruz's climate change views are not his biggest weakness. If anything, they will help him in the primary season, as Cruz's targeted voters largely harbor doubts about "climate change." The biggest knock against Ted Cruz is that hardly anybody likes him, especially in the Senate. Yes, he has a loyal band of activists who would swim through a volcano to vote for him, but that is not enough to win a presidential campaign (just ask Ron Paul). If Ted Cruz is the nominee, the GOP can forget about trying to win over any Democrats; he is about as popular with Democrats as Elizabeth Warren is with Republicans. As for independents, it is tough to say which way enough of them will swing, but my gut tells me that they will be scared off by some of Cruz's past actions- especially the disastrous government shutdown. It doesn't help Cruz's cause that he is not particularly well-liked among even the GOP. His colleagues in the Senate apparently are often irked by his tactics and stunts (don't forget McCain's "wacko bird" comment), which is never good for a member of such a distinguished body. The more red meat that Cruz throws to the base, the more he will distance himself from the moderate wing of the party (a faction of the party that actually does matter, in spite of what activists may say). A brutal primary season will only make him more disliked, I am afraid.
Next, Cruz has a relative short resume. He has no executive experience, whatsoever, which is something that Republicans hammered Obama on in 2008. In fact, his resume is very similar to the president's- an Ivy League education, a law degree, a legal career and a stint as a first-term junior senator. Republicans were right to criticize Obama for being inexperienced, but it would be very hypocritical to not criticize Cruz for the same thing. Unfortunately, this is also a knock against Marco Rubio and Rand Paul.
As far as policies are concerned, Cruz really is not that far out of the GOP mainstream. He is conservative in every way imaginable, so there is really nothing for him to be criticized as far as pure policy is concerned. It is his tactics that are often head-scratching; choosing confrontation over compromise. To date, I can't think of a legislative fight that he has actually won.
Finally, I just don't know how Cruz can overcome the fact that he is associated with a pseudo- filibuster where he read "Green Eggs and Ham" on the Senate floor and was the catalyst behind the embarrassingly stupid government shutdown in September and October 2013. That shutdown not only failed to accomplish anything meaningful, it also severely damaged Cruz's reputation (and the approval ratings of the party, as a whole). Being perceived as petty and/or arrogant is not a way to win a national election.
Conclusion
I think Senator Cruz will run a far stronger campaign than many think. He is a seasoned debater and has experience exceeding electoral expectations. I think he may well win a few primaries and pose a serious threat to Jeb and other candidates. However, I think his campaign will be hampered by the same problems that plagued the anti-Mitt candidates of 2012: he will be one of many challengers to Jeb. The opposition to Bush's campaign is increasingly diluted as the number of candidates increases, making it easier for Bush to win a plurality of votes in contests he might lose against just one challenger.
In the general election, Cruz would be a decided underdog, especially against Hillary Clinton. Rightly or wrongly, Clinton is perceived as being closer to the middle than the arch-conservative Ted Cruz. In simple game theoretic politics, Clinton would be able to grab a larger share of the vote by being closer to the middle. If, however, Clinton does not run, Cruz's chances increase dramatically. He would be an underdog against Jim Webb and probably Joe Biden, but his chances would probably be about 50:50 against leftist ideologues Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren (who are about as far from the middle as Cruz is believed to be). Honestly, if the contest ended up being between Cruz and Warren, I would not be surprised to see a centrist campaign spearheaded by someone like Joe Manchin or Susan Collins.
I am skeptical of Ted Cruz's chances to inhabit the White House, but he has proven that he is not one who should be underestimated.
The short answer is easy: of course he has a shot. Barack Obama was the definition of a longshot when he launched his campaign in 2007 and he surprised everyone by defeating the Clinton machine. Why should we think that another first term senator cannot pull off another upset against the Clinton machine?
The longer answer is slightly different. He may have a shot, but the odds are not exactly in his favor at the moment. Despite only being in the senate for a little over two years, Cruz has accumulated some baggage that will be tough to overcome, especially if he wins the Republican nomination. He would be a decisive underdog against Clinton, but would definitely have a fighter's chance. The odds would be more favorable for him against someone like Liz Warren or Bernie Sanders. The bottom line is this: it is too early to set precise odds, but anyone betting on Cruz would probably have a massive payday if he pulled off a victory.
Strengths
Let's first examine Ted Cruz's strengths. Having observed him in Larry Sabato's Introduction to American Politics class last year, two strengths immediately come to mind. First, he is not afraid of anybody. He will boldly address a room full of (mostly) liberal college kids and open himself up to any question on anyone's mind. He is confident and sure of his abilities. The second strength is closely related: he is probably the best debater of anyone running for president in 2016, Republican or Democrat. A world class debater at Princeton, Ted Cruz will hold his own, at the very least, with any other candidate (if not outright destroy them). In short, Cruz is a pitbull when it comes to debates- he fears nobody and is a skilled fighter.
There are some other aspects of Senator Cruz that definitely constitute strengths. For one thing, he is extremely popular with grassroots and Tea Party activists. His campaign theme is already downright demagogic (just watch his Michael Bay-esque ad that also echoes of Tim Pawlenty's infamous ad) and he can carry that populist excitement to victory in states like Iowa and South Carolina. In places where the Tea Party is still strong (ie: the South, Midwest, and Interior West), Cruz will probably do very well in the primaries. Another strength of Cruz is his quintessentially American life story. Although some questions are being raised about his eligibility (questions that I believe are non-issues), his rags-to-riches story is as American as it gets. Combine that with his Hispanic heritage, and it is easy to see why he has some support.
Weaknesses
Now let us to turn to his weaknesses. No, Jerry Brown, Cruz's climate change views are not his biggest weakness. If anything, they will help him in the primary season, as Cruz's targeted voters largely harbor doubts about "climate change." The biggest knock against Ted Cruz is that hardly anybody likes him, especially in the Senate. Yes, he has a loyal band of activists who would swim through a volcano to vote for him, but that is not enough to win a presidential campaign (just ask Ron Paul). If Ted Cruz is the nominee, the GOP can forget about trying to win over any Democrats; he is about as popular with Democrats as Elizabeth Warren is with Republicans. As for independents, it is tough to say which way enough of them will swing, but my gut tells me that they will be scared off by some of Cruz's past actions- especially the disastrous government shutdown. It doesn't help Cruz's cause that he is not particularly well-liked among even the GOP. His colleagues in the Senate apparently are often irked by his tactics and stunts (don't forget McCain's "wacko bird" comment), which is never good for a member of such a distinguished body. The more red meat that Cruz throws to the base, the more he will distance himself from the moderate wing of the party (a faction of the party that actually does matter, in spite of what activists may say). A brutal primary season will only make him more disliked, I am afraid.
Next, Cruz has a relative short resume. He has no executive experience, whatsoever, which is something that Republicans hammered Obama on in 2008. In fact, his resume is very similar to the president's- an Ivy League education, a law degree, a legal career and a stint as a first-term junior senator. Republicans were right to criticize Obama for being inexperienced, but it would be very hypocritical to not criticize Cruz for the same thing. Unfortunately, this is also a knock against Marco Rubio and Rand Paul.
As far as policies are concerned, Cruz really is not that far out of the GOP mainstream. He is conservative in every way imaginable, so there is really nothing for him to be criticized as far as pure policy is concerned. It is his tactics that are often head-scratching; choosing confrontation over compromise. To date, I can't think of a legislative fight that he has actually won.
Finally, I just don't know how Cruz can overcome the fact that he is associated with a pseudo- filibuster where he read "Green Eggs and Ham" on the Senate floor and was the catalyst behind the embarrassingly stupid government shutdown in September and October 2013. That shutdown not only failed to accomplish anything meaningful, it also severely damaged Cruz's reputation (and the approval ratings of the party, as a whole). Being perceived as petty and/or arrogant is not a way to win a national election.
Conclusion
I think Senator Cruz will run a far stronger campaign than many think. He is a seasoned debater and has experience exceeding electoral expectations. I think he may well win a few primaries and pose a serious threat to Jeb and other candidates. However, I think his campaign will be hampered by the same problems that plagued the anti-Mitt candidates of 2012: he will be one of many challengers to Jeb. The opposition to Bush's campaign is increasingly diluted as the number of candidates increases, making it easier for Bush to win a plurality of votes in contests he might lose against just one challenger.
In the general election, Cruz would be a decided underdog, especially against Hillary Clinton. Rightly or wrongly, Clinton is perceived as being closer to the middle than the arch-conservative Ted Cruz. In simple game theoretic politics, Clinton would be able to grab a larger share of the vote by being closer to the middle. If, however, Clinton does not run, Cruz's chances increase dramatically. He would be an underdog against Jim Webb and probably Joe Biden, but his chances would probably be about 50:50 against leftist ideologues Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren (who are about as far from the middle as Cruz is believed to be). Honestly, if the contest ended up being between Cruz and Warren, I would not be surprised to see a centrist campaign spearheaded by someone like Joe Manchin or Susan Collins.
I am skeptical of Ted Cruz's chances to inhabit the White House, but he has proven that he is not one who should be underestimated.
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