Recently, I announced my endorsement of Evan McMullin for the office of President of the United States. I did this knowing full well that it is literally impossible for him to being elected using the normal channels of the Electoral College. He is only on the ballot in a handful of states and is a write-in candidate in a few more. As such, he has no path to victory through the Electoral College.
But victory is not impossible. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible. The first step is to win Utah- a state where he is beloved for his Mormon faith and genuine decency compared to his competitors. Right now, he is close to achieving that first step. The polls in Utah have a close race between him and Trump. If he pulls it off, it would guarantee him a spot in any potential House of Representatives contest (seeing how unlikely it is that Gary Johnson wins New Mexico or any other state).
Step Two is basically up to fate and ironically, depends greatly on Donald Trump (the man McMullin is trying to defeat). Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump must win less than 270 Electoral Votes next Tuesday. The map below is a somewhat plausible map that would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
But victory is not impossible. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible. The first step is to win Utah- a state where he is beloved for his Mormon faith and genuine decency compared to his competitors. Right now, he is close to achieving that first step. The polls in Utah have a close race between him and Trump. If he pulls it off, it would guarantee him a spot in any potential House of Representatives contest (seeing how unlikely it is that Gary Johnson wins New Mexico or any other state).
Step Two is basically up to fate and ironically, depends greatly on Donald Trump (the man McMullin is trying to defeat). Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump must win less than 270 Electoral Votes next Tuesday. The map below is a somewhat plausible map that would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
In this map, neither Clinton nor Trump achieves a majority (nor is Trump robbed of one by McMullin). As such, the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives.
The Constitutional procedures for having the House elect the president are somewhat odd. Instead of having each individual vote among the three candidates, the vote is tallied by state. Ergo, the lone representative in states like Alaska and Montana has as much power as the entire California delegation. Although somewhat undemocratic, it does make it easier to predict the eventual winner. The map below breaks down the Congressional delegation of each states. Dark red states are states that are safely Republican, light red states are states that are most likely going to be have a majority of Republican representatives in the next cycle (but the advantage is not strong enough to consider them "safe"). Grey states have an even number of Republicans and Democrats in their delegation. And the blue states mirror the red states.
The Constitutional procedures for having the House elect the president are somewhat odd. Instead of having each individual vote among the three candidates, the vote is tallied by state. Ergo, the lone representative in states like Alaska and Montana has as much power as the entire California delegation. Although somewhat undemocratic, it does make it easier to predict the eventual winner. The map below breaks down the Congressional delegation of each states. Dark red states are states that are safely Republican, light red states are states that are most likely going to be have a majority of Republican representatives in the next cycle (but the advantage is not strong enough to consider them "safe"). Grey states have an even number of Republicans and Democrats in their delegation. And the blue states mirror the red states.
Even if a disastrous scenario happens for the GOP where all the pink and grey states flip to Democratic control, Hillary Clinton cannot win if the election is thrown to the House of Representatives. The Republicans safely control 27 states and weakly control 5. As such, the worst case scenario for Republicans in a 2-way battle between Trump and Clinton would be a 27-23 victory, while the best-case scenario would be a 37-13 victory. There is simply no way that a Republican would not win if this scenario happens.
Enter Evan McMullin. To win, McMullin must get the support of Democrats in the House. Presumably, that would not be too difficult, as Republicans would hold all the cards. Since Clinton cannot win, they would be forced to choose between Trump and McMullin. Given the Democrats' intense hatred for Trump, McMullin would likely seem like the better option to these Democratic delegations.
However, McMullin would need more than just Utah and the blue states. Victory will also require winning over the delegations of Republican states and split states. I think McMullin's best chance of success, here, would come form Interior West and Tornado Alley states, where many are represented by a lone member of Congress (or very few members), lots of Mormons live, and a good portion of #NeverTrump Republicans dwell. It would not be easy and require a lot of horse-trading on the part of McMullin. Here, though, is where McMullin would have the advantage. Given his history in the House of Representatives as a policy wonk, McMullin would be in a position to make concrete deals with individual members. The relationships he has with other Hill staffers and representatives would make his promises far more plausible and realistic than anything Trump might offer. Trump is not a man of details and this time, it would hurt him. Below is a map of a two-way contest between Trump and McMullin (with blue states still intact) that I think represents the easiest route to victory in such a case.
Enter Evan McMullin. To win, McMullin must get the support of Democrats in the House. Presumably, that would not be too difficult, as Republicans would hold all the cards. Since Clinton cannot win, they would be forced to choose between Trump and McMullin. Given the Democrats' intense hatred for Trump, McMullin would likely seem like the better option to these Democratic delegations.
However, McMullin would need more than just Utah and the blue states. Victory will also require winning over the delegations of Republican states and split states. I think McMullin's best chance of success, here, would come form Interior West and Tornado Alley states, where many are represented by a lone member of Congress (or very few members), lots of Mormons live, and a good portion of #NeverTrump Republicans dwell. It would not be easy and require a lot of horse-trading on the part of McMullin. Here, though, is where McMullin would have the advantage. Given his history in the House of Representatives as a policy wonk, McMullin would be in a position to make concrete deals with individual members. The relationships he has with other Hill staffers and representatives would make his promises far more plausible and realistic than anything Trump might offer. Trump is not a man of details and this time, it would hurt him. Below is a map of a two-way contest between Trump and McMullin (with blue states still intact) that I think represents the easiest route to victory in such a case.
So, to recap. If McMullin were to win the support of all the blue state delegations, plus the yellow delegations and two of the three grey delegations, he would win.
The fun does not end there, however. We would also have to watch as Congress elected the next Vice President. Unfortunately for the McMullin-Finn ticket, Mindy Finn would not be an option for the senators (even in the event that her running mate won in the House). Per the Twelfth Amendment, only the top two vice presidential candidates (in terms of Electoral Votes) are eligible for consideration by the Senate. Ergo, the next Vice President will be Tim Kaine or Mike Pence, regardless of whether or not McMullin could pull off the unthinkable upset in the House. Below is a map of what I predict the next distribution of senators by state will be (unlike the House, though, the Senators can vote individually). Yellow states indicate a split distribution.
The fun does not end there, however. We would also have to watch as Congress elected the next Vice President. Unfortunately for the McMullin-Finn ticket, Mindy Finn would not be an option for the senators (even in the event that her running mate won in the House). Per the Twelfth Amendment, only the top two vice presidential candidates (in terms of Electoral Votes) are eligible for consideration by the Senate. Ergo, the next Vice President will be Tim Kaine or Mike Pence, regardless of whether or not McMullin could pull off the unthinkable upset in the House. Below is a map of what I predict the next distribution of senators by state will be (unlike the House, though, the Senators can vote individually). Yellow states indicate a split distribution.
This prediction would give the Democrats control at 51 seats (I am assuming losses by Pat Toomey, Kelly Ayotte, Ron Johnson, Mark Kirk, Todd Young, Joe Heck, and Richard Burr next week). Even if one of these Republicans ends up winning, control will still rest with the Democrats as Joe Biden would be the tie-breaking vote. Consequently, I predict Tim Kaine would emerge as Vice President-elect.
Where would the country go from there? One VERY likely outcome is that Donald Trump would react much the same way as Andrew Jackson reacted in 1824; if not far worse. To Trump, it would be the ultimate evidence that the "system is rigged" against him, and I have no doubt that he would spend the next four years running for president and rallying his base against President McMullin. His wrath would take on biblical proportions and he would rally the power of the Conservative Infotainment Establishment (figures like Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Steve Bannon, Laura Ingraham, and Michelle Malkin) against the president and against any Republicans in the House who dared to vote against him.
On the other hand, a McMullin-Kaine presidency might be just the kind of White House the country needs to roll back some of the extreme polarization gripping the country. Two members of different parties setting aside differences and working towards a unifying agenda could bridge some of the gaps between Americans, and not just on partisan lines. Few Democrats would fit that role better than Senator Kaine, a man known for building bridges and friendships with Republicans. Think of it this way, the White House could finally be seen as a place for republican (small "r") virtues as two public servants unite to lead a country that is bitterly divided by partisanship, class, education, race, gender, geography, religion, and other factors. This case could end up being as idealistic as the most optimistic West Wing episodes.
Also, most of the country really is not that enamored with either Trump or Clinton. The two major party candidates combined for about 30 million votes in the primaries, which is about half of what the losing candidate will amass on Tuesday. Millions of other voters (including a majority of Republican primary voters) did not vote for either Clinton or Trump in the primary. Opposition to Trump from Republicans is far stronger than opposition to any other recent nominee, and there are still a large number of Bernie Sanders supporters angry at Clinton. Instead of being stuck with one of the two most hated candidates of all time, this scenario would give Americans the best of all possible outcomes- a president and vice president who have the ability and desire to rise above partisanship and give the American people the government they truly deserve.
Which response would happen? My guess is probably the former. Trump's supporters have undying devotion to their leader and would more than likely agree with him that the system was "rigged" against him. Moreover, it is possible that the Democrat delegations would decide to go with Trump over McMullin, simply because they would find Trump easier to beat in 2020 than McMullin.
No matter what, the road to victory is difficult, at best, for McMullin. I still think Clinton is going to easily break 270 and render all this moot. But even if they both fail to reach 270, McMullin will have a tough time whipping up Democrat support and finding enough Republican delegations willing to break with Trump. And even if McMullin somehow succeeded at that, he would then be tasked with governing a divided nation, especially with an angry demagogue barnstorming the country and undermining the legitimacy of the President. Ultimately, Adams' so-called "Corrupt Bargain" with Henry Clay cast a shadow over his presidency that he could never escape and was compounded by Andrew Jackson's daily reminders to the country of how he was "robbed" by the House. In the age of polarized social media, this would be a difficult thing to overcome. On the other hand, a McMullin victory could be just what the country needs to get itself back on the right track. Regardless of what happens, I think we all will be relieved when this endless election is finally over, be it Wednesday or be it sometime in January.
Where would the country go from there? One VERY likely outcome is that Donald Trump would react much the same way as Andrew Jackson reacted in 1824; if not far worse. To Trump, it would be the ultimate evidence that the "system is rigged" against him, and I have no doubt that he would spend the next four years running for president and rallying his base against President McMullin. His wrath would take on biblical proportions and he would rally the power of the Conservative Infotainment Establishment (figures like Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Steve Bannon, Laura Ingraham, and Michelle Malkin) against the president and against any Republicans in the House who dared to vote against him.
On the other hand, a McMullin-Kaine presidency might be just the kind of White House the country needs to roll back some of the extreme polarization gripping the country. Two members of different parties setting aside differences and working towards a unifying agenda could bridge some of the gaps between Americans, and not just on partisan lines. Few Democrats would fit that role better than Senator Kaine, a man known for building bridges and friendships with Republicans. Think of it this way, the White House could finally be seen as a place for republican (small "r") virtues as two public servants unite to lead a country that is bitterly divided by partisanship, class, education, race, gender, geography, religion, and other factors. This case could end up being as idealistic as the most optimistic West Wing episodes.
Also, most of the country really is not that enamored with either Trump or Clinton. The two major party candidates combined for about 30 million votes in the primaries, which is about half of what the losing candidate will amass on Tuesday. Millions of other voters (including a majority of Republican primary voters) did not vote for either Clinton or Trump in the primary. Opposition to Trump from Republicans is far stronger than opposition to any other recent nominee, and there are still a large number of Bernie Sanders supporters angry at Clinton. Instead of being stuck with one of the two most hated candidates of all time, this scenario would give Americans the best of all possible outcomes- a president and vice president who have the ability and desire to rise above partisanship and give the American people the government they truly deserve.
Which response would happen? My guess is probably the former. Trump's supporters have undying devotion to their leader and would more than likely agree with him that the system was "rigged" against him. Moreover, it is possible that the Democrat delegations would decide to go with Trump over McMullin, simply because they would find Trump easier to beat in 2020 than McMullin.
No matter what, the road to victory is difficult, at best, for McMullin. I still think Clinton is going to easily break 270 and render all this moot. But even if they both fail to reach 270, McMullin will have a tough time whipping up Democrat support and finding enough Republican delegations willing to break with Trump. And even if McMullin somehow succeeded at that, he would then be tasked with governing a divided nation, especially with an angry demagogue barnstorming the country and undermining the legitimacy of the President. Ultimately, Adams' so-called "Corrupt Bargain" with Henry Clay cast a shadow over his presidency that he could never escape and was compounded by Andrew Jackson's daily reminders to the country of how he was "robbed" by the House. In the age of polarized social media, this would be a difficult thing to overcome. On the other hand, a McMullin victory could be just what the country needs to get itself back on the right track. Regardless of what happens, I think we all will be relieved when this endless election is finally over, be it Wednesday or be it sometime in January.
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