The impossible is becoming the quite possible- Donald Trump may well be the Republican Party nominee in 2016. A man who has been the butt of jokes since the get-go is no longer a laughing matter. As a political scientist, I can find no parallel in our nation’s history for this phenomenon, and I am flabbergasted, disturbed, and even fearful.
When Trump announced his campaign last summer, I assumed he would be out of the race by the time the Eagles played their first snap of the season. I did not think that his brand of over-the-top statements, coupled with his extreme narcissism and checkered history on political issues would survive very long. The man has publicly taken all sides on all issues his entire adult life and surely no conservative would trust him to keep his word on anything. I was wrong.
Every time that Trump has hurled insults at one group or another, I thought it would be a death blow to his campaign. He has insulted Mexicans and other foreigners, women, POW’s, the handicapped, Muslims, and everyone in between. He has recently re-Tweeted white supremacist and neo-Nazi accounts and it has not cost him one iota of support. He has trumpeted the support he received from Vladimir Putin and praised Kim Jong-un’s ability to “keep control” of North Korea by wiping out his rivals in brutal fashions that would make Michael Corleone blush. He has even insulted the intelligence of his own supporters! Yet he is immune to it all. I do not get it.
I also assumed from the beginning that Trump’s lack of policy chops would help to do him in. It has not. Instead, all we ever hear are vague promises of a “huge wall” that Mexico will, for some reason, finance. Unlike, say Governor Kasich, Trump has no understanding of the numerous political maneuvers it will take for the next president to accomplish anything. He just assumes that his business savvy will translate into political success. The political world is not the business world- the boss (the president) can have his deals shot down by his underlings in the political world. He is not given carte blanche to do whatever he pleases. Even if he becomes president, Trump will soon be frustrated by the institutional inertia and Constitutional checks and balances that were created specifically to prevent an authoritarian from seizing total power. Instead of all this counting against him, it seems to be a reason people are drawn to Trump- he is an “outsider” who does not know Washington’s politics. While such sentiments are somewhat admirable, they also risk the demagoguery the Founders feared above all.
I also assumed that the party leaders and elder statesmen would never allow Trump to get anywhere near the nomination. I figured that great statesmen like Bob Dole and Chuck Grassley would serve as the last line of defense in case the madness of the masses grew to unbearable proportions. Now, it seems, they have succeeded in talking themselves into the idea of working with Trump, ostensibly to stave off another missile in Ted Cruz. While I do not think either politician is good for the GOP, ultimately, I think the greater danger comes from Trump, not from Cruz. Trump may be more open to making deals with Republicans in the Oval Office, but he could just as easily switch back to being a Democrat, or he might try to dispense with the legislative process, altogether, and go the “executive action” route. Trump is a wild card, and a dangerous one. Moreover, nominating Trump would doom the GOP for generations as his reckless immigration rhetoric and demonizing of Hispanics drives them away from the GOP (not to mention other racial minorities). Cruz would almost certainly go down in flames, come November, but his defeat would not linger for generations (think Barry Goldwater). President Cruz may not be as interested in working with the GOP as President Trump could be, but I think he would damage the party far less than Trump, in the long run. In any event, it concerns me that party elders like Grassley, Dole, and Orrin Hatch appear to be warming up to Trump. Making bedfellows with Donald Trump would be an irrevocable mistake.
Once upon a time, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Phyllis Schlafly were shrewd conservative activists who succeeded in transforming the GOP from the centrist party it was under Dwight Eisenhower to the conservative party we see today. Now, they have all fallen for Trump’s bill of goods hook, line, and sinker and thrown their support by someone who is not a conservative in any sense of the word. Why? The only answer I can provide is that they truly believe Trump will halt immigration (even legal immigration!) and keep brown people out of the United States. Normally, I hate to invoke race, but Trump has gotten into bed with neo-Nazis and I think that makes him fair game to be accused of racism. Ann Coulter, moreover, is backing Trump because she earnestly believes immigrants could never possibly become conservatives and therefore must be shut out of the country so that the largely-white Republican Party can remain competitive longer. It is truly unbelievable that they have so little faith in conservatism that they want the GOP to become the party of white supremacy (don't forget- she wants to deport Nikki Haley). In a country where whites will soon be a minority, I would think the better strategy would be to modernize the party and build new coalitions rather than cling to the past and destroy families just for political gain. It is one thing to oppose illegal immigration, it is another to demand a police state in the form of mass deportations, oppose legal immigration, and scapegoat racial minorities. To me, that is nationalism bordering on racial fascism, not conservatism.
I am deeply disturbed by the growing strength of Trump’s cult of personality. He is immune to everything and has somehow cast a spell over people that makes them blind to a lifetime of flip-flopping on issues, insulting everyone and everything, and caring little for the Constitution or anyone who stands in his way. He can release a video of three girls singing about him “crushing the enemies of freedom” and his supporters do not see the irony (to me, it was eerily reminiscent of the opening scene from The Interview). As I said earlier, he can insult the intelligence of his supporters by saying they would vote for him even if he was killing people, and it probably will not cost him one vote. I believe he is an astute entertainer and (I hope he) is putting on a show for certain segments of the population, but they do not realize they are being conned. Trump’s demagoguery puts him in an elite group in American history, alongside Andrew Jackson, Huey Long, and George Wallace. But he out-demagogues them all. He is stirring up the angry passions of the masses without even possessing a clear message. With Trump, it is a crapshoot to guess what he actually believes on anything. The only constant in everything he says is that he is awesome because he is rich. Maybe that is the key to Trump’s success- making it all about him and feeding his ego. The people apparently crave a dictator and Trump will give it to them if he becomes president. Again, this is not conservatism, it is demagoguery cloaked in an extreme form of one conservative position.
The GOP has to stand up to Trump now, and follow the example of the great minds at National Review. For months, they have tolerated his whining and catered to his every whim out of fear that he will launch a third-party bid that would ensure a victory for Hillary Clinton. At this point, there are few good options, only bad options and worse options. The absolute worst outcome would be for Trump to win the White House and run roughshod with the presidency for the next four years. The GOP would never win another presidential election. The next worst would be to have Trump be the nominee and lose the general. He would still leave his mark on the party brand, which would be challenging for future nominees to overcome, but at least the Trump Era would be over. Nominating Ted Cruz would be disastrous, but the party could recover. In any case, there is absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by putting the Republican Party’s fate in the hands of Donald Trump. Nominating Trump could be the end of the Republican Party (at worst), or at best, it could diminish the Grand Old Party to a permanent position as the opposition party after Trump’s campaign forever tars the GOP brand in the minds of a more diverse electorate. And for what? A demagogue who is not a conservative.
When Trump announced his campaign last summer, I assumed he would be out of the race by the time the Eagles played their first snap of the season. I did not think that his brand of over-the-top statements, coupled with his extreme narcissism and checkered history on political issues would survive very long. The man has publicly taken all sides on all issues his entire adult life and surely no conservative would trust him to keep his word on anything. I was wrong.
Every time that Trump has hurled insults at one group or another, I thought it would be a death blow to his campaign. He has insulted Mexicans and other foreigners, women, POW’s, the handicapped, Muslims, and everyone in between. He has recently re-Tweeted white supremacist and neo-Nazi accounts and it has not cost him one iota of support. He has trumpeted the support he received from Vladimir Putin and praised Kim Jong-un’s ability to “keep control” of North Korea by wiping out his rivals in brutal fashions that would make Michael Corleone blush. He has even insulted the intelligence of his own supporters! Yet he is immune to it all. I do not get it.
I also assumed from the beginning that Trump’s lack of policy chops would help to do him in. It has not. Instead, all we ever hear are vague promises of a “huge wall” that Mexico will, for some reason, finance. Unlike, say Governor Kasich, Trump has no understanding of the numerous political maneuvers it will take for the next president to accomplish anything. He just assumes that his business savvy will translate into political success. The political world is not the business world- the boss (the president) can have his deals shot down by his underlings in the political world. He is not given carte blanche to do whatever he pleases. Even if he becomes president, Trump will soon be frustrated by the institutional inertia and Constitutional checks and balances that were created specifically to prevent an authoritarian from seizing total power. Instead of all this counting against him, it seems to be a reason people are drawn to Trump- he is an “outsider” who does not know Washington’s politics. While such sentiments are somewhat admirable, they also risk the demagoguery the Founders feared above all.
I also assumed that the party leaders and elder statesmen would never allow Trump to get anywhere near the nomination. I figured that great statesmen like Bob Dole and Chuck Grassley would serve as the last line of defense in case the madness of the masses grew to unbearable proportions. Now, it seems, they have succeeded in talking themselves into the idea of working with Trump, ostensibly to stave off another missile in Ted Cruz. While I do not think either politician is good for the GOP, ultimately, I think the greater danger comes from Trump, not from Cruz. Trump may be more open to making deals with Republicans in the Oval Office, but he could just as easily switch back to being a Democrat, or he might try to dispense with the legislative process, altogether, and go the “executive action” route. Trump is a wild card, and a dangerous one. Moreover, nominating Trump would doom the GOP for generations as his reckless immigration rhetoric and demonizing of Hispanics drives them away from the GOP (not to mention other racial minorities). Cruz would almost certainly go down in flames, come November, but his defeat would not linger for generations (think Barry Goldwater). President Cruz may not be as interested in working with the GOP as President Trump could be, but I think he would damage the party far less than Trump, in the long run. In any event, it concerns me that party elders like Grassley, Dole, and Orrin Hatch appear to be warming up to Trump. Making bedfellows with Donald Trump would be an irrevocable mistake.
Once upon a time, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Phyllis Schlafly were shrewd conservative activists who succeeded in transforming the GOP from the centrist party it was under Dwight Eisenhower to the conservative party we see today. Now, they have all fallen for Trump’s bill of goods hook, line, and sinker and thrown their support by someone who is not a conservative in any sense of the word. Why? The only answer I can provide is that they truly believe Trump will halt immigration (even legal immigration!) and keep brown people out of the United States. Normally, I hate to invoke race, but Trump has gotten into bed with neo-Nazis and I think that makes him fair game to be accused of racism. Ann Coulter, moreover, is backing Trump because she earnestly believes immigrants could never possibly become conservatives and therefore must be shut out of the country so that the largely-white Republican Party can remain competitive longer. It is truly unbelievable that they have so little faith in conservatism that they want the GOP to become the party of white supremacy (don't forget- she wants to deport Nikki Haley). In a country where whites will soon be a minority, I would think the better strategy would be to modernize the party and build new coalitions rather than cling to the past and destroy families just for political gain. It is one thing to oppose illegal immigration, it is another to demand a police state in the form of mass deportations, oppose legal immigration, and scapegoat racial minorities. To me, that is nationalism bordering on racial fascism, not conservatism.
I am deeply disturbed by the growing strength of Trump’s cult of personality. He is immune to everything and has somehow cast a spell over people that makes them blind to a lifetime of flip-flopping on issues, insulting everyone and everything, and caring little for the Constitution or anyone who stands in his way. He can release a video of three girls singing about him “crushing the enemies of freedom” and his supporters do not see the irony (to me, it was eerily reminiscent of the opening scene from The Interview). As I said earlier, he can insult the intelligence of his supporters by saying they would vote for him even if he was killing people, and it probably will not cost him one vote. I believe he is an astute entertainer and (I hope he) is putting on a show for certain segments of the population, but they do not realize they are being conned. Trump’s demagoguery puts him in an elite group in American history, alongside Andrew Jackson, Huey Long, and George Wallace. But he out-demagogues them all. He is stirring up the angry passions of the masses without even possessing a clear message. With Trump, it is a crapshoot to guess what he actually believes on anything. The only constant in everything he says is that he is awesome because he is rich. Maybe that is the key to Trump’s success- making it all about him and feeding his ego. The people apparently crave a dictator and Trump will give it to them if he becomes president. Again, this is not conservatism, it is demagoguery cloaked in an extreme form of one conservative position.
The GOP has to stand up to Trump now, and follow the example of the great minds at National Review. For months, they have tolerated his whining and catered to his every whim out of fear that he will launch a third-party bid that would ensure a victory for Hillary Clinton. At this point, there are few good options, only bad options and worse options. The absolute worst outcome would be for Trump to win the White House and run roughshod with the presidency for the next four years. The GOP would never win another presidential election. The next worst would be to have Trump be the nominee and lose the general. He would still leave his mark on the party brand, which would be challenging for future nominees to overcome, but at least the Trump Era would be over. Nominating Ted Cruz would be disastrous, but the party could recover. In any case, there is absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by putting the Republican Party’s fate in the hands of Donald Trump. Nominating Trump could be the end of the Republican Party (at worst), or at best, it could diminish the Grand Old Party to a permanent position as the opposition party after Trump’s campaign forever tars the GOP brand in the minds of a more diverse electorate. And for what? A demagogue who is not a conservative.
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