Well, it is now November and we are a day under 3 months out from the Iowa caucuses. Much has happened to shake up the presidential contests in recent weeks, and there are sure to be more shakeups in the weeks and months to come. We’ll look first at the Democrats.
The Democrats
The Undisputed Frontrunner
Hillary Clinton- like her or not, she is well on her way to the nomination. Thanks to the gifts given to her by Kevin McCarthy, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden she has a fairly clear path to the nomination, as long as she does not become too complacent. She has a far wider range of support than either of her competitors and that is especially true with regards to the Superdelegate race. Between the Clinton Machine and her campaign strategy of keeping the focus solely on the historic aspect of electing a woman to the White House, she is in good shape in the primary race. She also has a better shot than either of her Democratic competitors in the General Election by virtue of name recognition and her (comparatively) pragmatic reputation.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Hillary Clinton (2008)
The Crusading Rabble Rouser
Bernie Sanders- In spite of what his loyal legions of supporters may think, Sanders is not going to be the Democratic nominee, nor will he be the 45th President of the United States. Sanders’ campaign is the leftwing version of the Ron Paul Revolution of 2012. In other words, the eccentric old guy is drawing massive crowds of college kids with his slightly unorthodox positions and honest focus on issues. Massive crowds and devout Internet trolls do not, however, a president make. Even in a small Democratic field, Bernie will have trouble winning the Superdelegate race and primary contests after New Hampshire. Even if he somehow does capture the nomination, winning the White House will essentially require the GOP to nominate Trump or Cruz; someone even less appealing to moderates than an unapologetic socialist.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ron Paul (a socialist version of him)
The Other Guy
Martin O’Malley- I truly believe that O’Malley’s campaign is nothing more than a foundation for a future run. O’Malley knows that Clinton will be the nominee and Sanders is the first choice of the far left looking for an alternative to Clinton. Right now, he is just building his name recognition, making connections to party powerbrokers, and perfecting his campaign experience for a run in 2020 or 2024. And he might as well, while the Democratic field is so small.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: John Edwards (2004)
The Republicans
The TRUE Frontrunner
Marco Rubio- Last week, Marco Rubio established himself as the most likely GOP nominee with a superb performance on the CNBC Debate by thoroughly demolishing Jeb(!), denouncing the media, and throwing red meat to the conservative base without going overboard. Rubio is in the race for the long-haul. Even if his poll numbers are not as strong as Trump or Carson, he is in the best position to unite the various factions of the GOP, in parallel fashion to Paul Ryan. Rubio is not afraid to take jabs at the “establishment,” but instead of running a demagogic campaign, he is running an effective, optimistic, unifying campaign that will put him in a great position for not only the nomination, but also the White House. Yes, Ann Coulter and her legions of Trump-bots will kick and scream, but I do not believe they are the majority of Republicans.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Barack Obama (2008; a conservative version of him)
The Long-Haul Challengers
Ted Cruz- I do not like Ted Cruz very much, but he has put together an extraordinary primary campaign, so far; one that has put him in a great position to potentially pull off a major political upset by winning the Republican nomination. Like Rubio, Cruz had a breakout performance in last week’s debate, shredding the CNBC “Moderators” and serving some filet mignon to party activists. He is an extremely skilled debater and will go toe-to-toe with Rubio and each of the other candidates in the contest. Once Trump’s train finally derails, Cruz will be in the best position to mop up Trump’s supporters by virtue of not attacking Trump and doing some immigration-themed campaign events with Trump. Indeed, Cruz is a politician as skilled as Frank Underwood, but too ideological to completely destroy the establishment (Underwood’s weapon was the trust and loyalty of powerful Democrats, Cruz has no such following with Republicans). Should he manage to commandeer the nomination, however, the path to the White House will be far more daunting. Cruz is universally disliked by Democrats and Independents, and largely disliked by Republicans. He did himself no favors (in terms of a General Election strategy) by completely writing off the “mushy middle” for the sake of drawing out a supposed electorate of conservatives who did not vote in 2012. Even if this electorate exists, I doubt that it is large enough to make up for the loss of moderates and swing voters (either to Hillary Clinton or to Jim Webb), and I believe Cruz would lose in spectacular Goldwater-esque fashion.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Barry Goldwater (1964)
John Kasich- Unlike Cruz, Kasich is running a campaign designed to win a General Election. Kasich’s focus on pragmatically conservative solutions to problems is the kind of mentality that can win states like Ohio and Virginia in the General Election, especially as Bernie continues to pull Hillary to the left. The problem, however, is that many Republican primary voters are in no mood to be pragmatic; they want someone as ideologically pure as Ted Cruz. Kasich’s plans more or less hinge on a strong showing in New Hampshire. If he fails to finish in the top 2 in New Hampshire, there is no reason to expect him to be the GOP nominee. If he does well, however, he can win more “establishment” support and win primaries in less-conservative states. In last week’s debate, he came off a little too strong sometimes, but had a strong showing. New Hampshire is the key- if he does well, he could be the GOP nominee; if he falters, he will be done the next day.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Jon Huntsman
Carly Fiorina- By virtue of her strong debate performances, I expect Carly to be around for quite a while. She has shown that she has the grit, strength, and intelligence to go toe-to-toe with Hillary in any debate and the ferocity to be a strong president (not to mention the wealth to keep her primary campaign alive for a long time). Still, I think her lack of political experience will catch up to her, eventually, and she will not be the GOP nominee. Should a Republican win next year, however, I fully expect that Carly will be tapped for a Cabinet position (perhaps even the VP slot in a GOP ticket). If that happens, she could be well-positioned for a strong future run at the presidency.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Steve Forbes (1996)
The “Frontrunners”
Donald Trump- Yes, I know he is in first place in many polls. So what? Trump’s campaign is not built on anything of substance and he is far and away the most disliked of the Republican contenders by Republicans (not to mention Democrats and Hispanics). Trump’s campaign is an ego trip, at best, built on a foundation of Trump making demagogic statements that contradict past political statements. It is true, Trump has tapped into a sizable base of angry voters and speaks their language as a “political outsider.” Again, so what? The number of angry voters is dwarfed by the number of Republicans and Democrats who think of Trump as a vain, narcissistic blowhard who is not a serious candidate. Eventually, Trump’s campaign will crash and burn. At worst, the rest of the field will narrow down to a couple of opponents and the split base will unite around Rubio (or whoever Trump’s main opponent happens to be). And even if he somehow captures the nomination, he will lose in a landslide.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ross Perot (1992, 1996- no offense to Mr. Perot)
Ben Carson- At the other extreme of the personality spectrum is Dr. Ben Carson. Unlike the brash Trump, Carson is mellow all the time- so mellow, in fact, I wonder if he pre-games every debate with some special brownies made in Colorado. Carson is a likable person, but he suffers from “foot in mouth” disease and is too politically inexperienced to make a good president. More specifically, his propensity to say crazy things (and sound serious) is problematic and has made him fodder for SNL and other late-night comedies. I have a hard time imaging Carson sticking around too long- his heart just does not seem to be in it and he would get eaten alive by Hillary in the debates if he somehow wins the nomination.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Herman Cain (2012)
The Hopelessly Delusional and Sinking Ships
Jeb! Bush- Boy, what an awful week it has been for Jeb(!)! Between sinking poll numbers, getting mercilessly destroyed by Marco Rubio, and discouraging financial reports, Jeb’s campaign really appears to be in the toilet. Whenever reports emerge about a candidate cutting staff salaries in states like South Carolina, it tells me that a campaign’s days are numbered. And when a candidate is forced to “relaunch” his campaign, it tells me that things are not going well. And when a candidate is thoroughly destroyed by a colleague in a debate and spends the rest of the time looking like the life has been drained from his body, it tells me that he should just salvage what remains of his reputation and fall off the radar for a while (like Tim Pawlenty). The party powerbrokers are jumping Jeb’s ship, and so should he. Even if he manages to resurrect his primary campaign and win the nomination, he has no shot at defeating Hillary- the Bush name is too radioactive for many Americans and the far right would stay home and abandon him.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Hillary Clinton (2008)
Mike Huckabee- Huckabee had a good debate, but he is still delusional if he believes he has a serious chance at the White House. His economic populism (AKA big government conservatism) will alienate conservatives and his absurd overreactions to gay marriage are at odds with the larger American electorate (for instance, pledging to go to jail in Kim Davis’ stead- the actions of a prima donna, not a presidential candidate).
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Mike Huckabee (2008)
Rand Paul- At this point, he should just focus on winning reelection. If Hillary becomes president, he can run in 2020 (when, perhaps, the GOP will be more libertarian-leaning than it currently is). For now, though, he has run a decidedly lackluster campaign and seems to have lost a lot of his father’s support. Pack it up and focus on remaining Kentucky’s Junior Senator.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ron Paul (2008)
Chris Christie- A good debate performance probably is not enough to boost his poll numbers. He is still viewed as a “RINO” by many primary voters and the shadow of Bridgegate darkens his path to a general election victory.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Newt Gingrich (2012)
Lindsey Graham- He apparently had a decent performance in the undercard debate, but his campaign is still stuck in 2004. He still advocates for a military response to everything and most Americans have moved on from the post-9/11 state of constant fear. While I appreciate his sense of pragmatism on domestic issues, his foreign policy leanings are just too extreme for the current climate. But hey, John McCain has his back.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Al Haig (1988)
George Pataki- Good man, good statesman, too moderate for current GOP, yesterday’s news.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Dick Lugar (1996)
Rick Santorum- The clock has struck midnight on his Cinderella political career. A man of uncanny political luck (2 terms as a conservative Senator of purple Pennsylvania and peaking at just the right time in 2012), his luck has run out, this time. This time, he faces a much stronger GOP field and is too far past his prime to really erupt.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Sam Brownback (2008)
Bobby Jindal- His political time has come and gone.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Dan Quayle (2000)
Jim Gilmore- He has not even been invited to the last two undercard debates. Why is he still in the race?
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Pete Wilson (1996)
The Democrats
The Undisputed Frontrunner
Hillary Clinton- like her or not, she is well on her way to the nomination. Thanks to the gifts given to her by Kevin McCarthy, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden she has a fairly clear path to the nomination, as long as she does not become too complacent. She has a far wider range of support than either of her competitors and that is especially true with regards to the Superdelegate race. Between the Clinton Machine and her campaign strategy of keeping the focus solely on the historic aspect of electing a woman to the White House, she is in good shape in the primary race. She also has a better shot than either of her Democratic competitors in the General Election by virtue of name recognition and her (comparatively) pragmatic reputation.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Hillary Clinton (2008)
The Crusading Rabble Rouser
Bernie Sanders- In spite of what his loyal legions of supporters may think, Sanders is not going to be the Democratic nominee, nor will he be the 45th President of the United States. Sanders’ campaign is the leftwing version of the Ron Paul Revolution of 2012. In other words, the eccentric old guy is drawing massive crowds of college kids with his slightly unorthodox positions and honest focus on issues. Massive crowds and devout Internet trolls do not, however, a president make. Even in a small Democratic field, Bernie will have trouble winning the Superdelegate race and primary contests after New Hampshire. Even if he somehow does capture the nomination, winning the White House will essentially require the GOP to nominate Trump or Cruz; someone even less appealing to moderates than an unapologetic socialist.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ron Paul (a socialist version of him)
The Other Guy
Martin O’Malley- I truly believe that O’Malley’s campaign is nothing more than a foundation for a future run. O’Malley knows that Clinton will be the nominee and Sanders is the first choice of the far left looking for an alternative to Clinton. Right now, he is just building his name recognition, making connections to party powerbrokers, and perfecting his campaign experience for a run in 2020 or 2024. And he might as well, while the Democratic field is so small.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: John Edwards (2004)
The Republicans
The TRUE Frontrunner
Marco Rubio- Last week, Marco Rubio established himself as the most likely GOP nominee with a superb performance on the CNBC Debate by thoroughly demolishing Jeb(!), denouncing the media, and throwing red meat to the conservative base without going overboard. Rubio is in the race for the long-haul. Even if his poll numbers are not as strong as Trump or Carson, he is in the best position to unite the various factions of the GOP, in parallel fashion to Paul Ryan. Rubio is not afraid to take jabs at the “establishment,” but instead of running a demagogic campaign, he is running an effective, optimistic, unifying campaign that will put him in a great position for not only the nomination, but also the White House. Yes, Ann Coulter and her legions of Trump-bots will kick and scream, but I do not believe they are the majority of Republicans.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Barack Obama (2008; a conservative version of him)
The Long-Haul Challengers
Ted Cruz- I do not like Ted Cruz very much, but he has put together an extraordinary primary campaign, so far; one that has put him in a great position to potentially pull off a major political upset by winning the Republican nomination. Like Rubio, Cruz had a breakout performance in last week’s debate, shredding the CNBC “Moderators” and serving some filet mignon to party activists. He is an extremely skilled debater and will go toe-to-toe with Rubio and each of the other candidates in the contest. Once Trump’s train finally derails, Cruz will be in the best position to mop up Trump’s supporters by virtue of not attacking Trump and doing some immigration-themed campaign events with Trump. Indeed, Cruz is a politician as skilled as Frank Underwood, but too ideological to completely destroy the establishment (Underwood’s weapon was the trust and loyalty of powerful Democrats, Cruz has no such following with Republicans). Should he manage to commandeer the nomination, however, the path to the White House will be far more daunting. Cruz is universally disliked by Democrats and Independents, and largely disliked by Republicans. He did himself no favors (in terms of a General Election strategy) by completely writing off the “mushy middle” for the sake of drawing out a supposed electorate of conservatives who did not vote in 2012. Even if this electorate exists, I doubt that it is large enough to make up for the loss of moderates and swing voters (either to Hillary Clinton or to Jim Webb), and I believe Cruz would lose in spectacular Goldwater-esque fashion.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Barry Goldwater (1964)
John Kasich- Unlike Cruz, Kasich is running a campaign designed to win a General Election. Kasich’s focus on pragmatically conservative solutions to problems is the kind of mentality that can win states like Ohio and Virginia in the General Election, especially as Bernie continues to pull Hillary to the left. The problem, however, is that many Republican primary voters are in no mood to be pragmatic; they want someone as ideologically pure as Ted Cruz. Kasich’s plans more or less hinge on a strong showing in New Hampshire. If he fails to finish in the top 2 in New Hampshire, there is no reason to expect him to be the GOP nominee. If he does well, however, he can win more “establishment” support and win primaries in less-conservative states. In last week’s debate, he came off a little too strong sometimes, but had a strong showing. New Hampshire is the key- if he does well, he could be the GOP nominee; if he falters, he will be done the next day.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Jon Huntsman
Carly Fiorina- By virtue of her strong debate performances, I expect Carly to be around for quite a while. She has shown that she has the grit, strength, and intelligence to go toe-to-toe with Hillary in any debate and the ferocity to be a strong president (not to mention the wealth to keep her primary campaign alive for a long time). Still, I think her lack of political experience will catch up to her, eventually, and she will not be the GOP nominee. Should a Republican win next year, however, I fully expect that Carly will be tapped for a Cabinet position (perhaps even the VP slot in a GOP ticket). If that happens, she could be well-positioned for a strong future run at the presidency.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Steve Forbes (1996)
The “Frontrunners”
Donald Trump- Yes, I know he is in first place in many polls. So what? Trump’s campaign is not built on anything of substance and he is far and away the most disliked of the Republican contenders by Republicans (not to mention Democrats and Hispanics). Trump’s campaign is an ego trip, at best, built on a foundation of Trump making demagogic statements that contradict past political statements. It is true, Trump has tapped into a sizable base of angry voters and speaks their language as a “political outsider.” Again, so what? The number of angry voters is dwarfed by the number of Republicans and Democrats who think of Trump as a vain, narcissistic blowhard who is not a serious candidate. Eventually, Trump’s campaign will crash and burn. At worst, the rest of the field will narrow down to a couple of opponents and the split base will unite around Rubio (or whoever Trump’s main opponent happens to be). And even if he somehow captures the nomination, he will lose in a landslide.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ross Perot (1992, 1996- no offense to Mr. Perot)
Ben Carson- At the other extreme of the personality spectrum is Dr. Ben Carson. Unlike the brash Trump, Carson is mellow all the time- so mellow, in fact, I wonder if he pre-games every debate with some special brownies made in Colorado. Carson is a likable person, but he suffers from “foot in mouth” disease and is too politically inexperienced to make a good president. More specifically, his propensity to say crazy things (and sound serious) is problematic and has made him fodder for SNL and other late-night comedies. I have a hard time imaging Carson sticking around too long- his heart just does not seem to be in it and he would get eaten alive by Hillary in the debates if he somehow wins the nomination.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Herman Cain (2012)
The Hopelessly Delusional and Sinking Ships
Jeb! Bush- Boy, what an awful week it has been for Jeb(!)! Between sinking poll numbers, getting mercilessly destroyed by Marco Rubio, and discouraging financial reports, Jeb’s campaign really appears to be in the toilet. Whenever reports emerge about a candidate cutting staff salaries in states like South Carolina, it tells me that a campaign’s days are numbered. And when a candidate is forced to “relaunch” his campaign, it tells me that things are not going well. And when a candidate is thoroughly destroyed by a colleague in a debate and spends the rest of the time looking like the life has been drained from his body, it tells me that he should just salvage what remains of his reputation and fall off the radar for a while (like Tim Pawlenty). The party powerbrokers are jumping Jeb’s ship, and so should he. Even if he manages to resurrect his primary campaign and win the nomination, he has no shot at defeating Hillary- the Bush name is too radioactive for many Americans and the far right would stay home and abandon him.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Hillary Clinton (2008)
Mike Huckabee- Huckabee had a good debate, but he is still delusional if he believes he has a serious chance at the White House. His economic populism (AKA big government conservatism) will alienate conservatives and his absurd overreactions to gay marriage are at odds with the larger American electorate (for instance, pledging to go to jail in Kim Davis’ stead- the actions of a prima donna, not a presidential candidate).
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Mike Huckabee (2008)
Rand Paul- At this point, he should just focus on winning reelection. If Hillary becomes president, he can run in 2020 (when, perhaps, the GOP will be more libertarian-leaning than it currently is). For now, though, he has run a decidedly lackluster campaign and seems to have lost a lot of his father’s support. Pack it up and focus on remaining Kentucky’s Junior Senator.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Ron Paul (2008)
Chris Christie- A good debate performance probably is not enough to boost his poll numbers. He is still viewed as a “RINO” by many primary voters and the shadow of Bridgegate darkens his path to a general election victory.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Newt Gingrich (2012)
Lindsey Graham- He apparently had a decent performance in the undercard debate, but his campaign is still stuck in 2004. He still advocates for a military response to everything and most Americans have moved on from the post-9/11 state of constant fear. While I appreciate his sense of pragmatism on domestic issues, his foreign policy leanings are just too extreme for the current climate. But hey, John McCain has his back.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Al Haig (1988)
George Pataki- Good man, good statesman, too moderate for current GOP, yesterday’s news.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Dick Lugar (1996)
Rick Santorum- The clock has struck midnight on his Cinderella political career. A man of uncanny political luck (2 terms as a conservative Senator of purple Pennsylvania and peaking at just the right time in 2012), his luck has run out, this time. This time, he faces a much stronger GOP field and is too far past his prime to really erupt.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Sam Brownback (2008)
Bobby Jindal- His political time has come and gone.
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Dan Quayle (2000)
Jim Gilmore- He has not even been invited to the last two undercard debates. Why is he still in the race?
Past Candidate Most Similar To: Pete Wilson (1996)
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